The Siena (188 East 76 Street)

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

The Siena is a Postwar Resale Condo (Built 1997) located in the Upper East Side market. Standing 32 floors tall with 73 units, it functions as a "generic luxury" tower offering full-service amenities like a doorman and gym,.

Based on transaction history and the current NYXRCSA benchmark of 331.14 (Oct 2025), the building is classified as Yield-Oriented (Secondary: Lagging/Stagnant).

This classification is justified by a distinct structural decoupling from broader market appreciation. While the NYXRCSA index reached an all-time high of 331.14 in late 2025, The Siena has exhibited nominal capital destruction in its core 3-bedroom inventory over medium-to-long holding periods. The definitive signal is Unit 24B, which sold in July 2013 for $3.20M and resold in July 2022 for $2.85M—a realized -10.9% nominal loss despite a 9-year holding period,. Furthermore, Unit 18B sold in Feb 2017 for $3.00M and resold in July 2025 for $2.97M, confirming near-decade-long stagnation,. Value is currently derived from utility and rental consumption rather than equity compounding.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on transaction-weighted data from 86 recorded sales, the inventory is heavily skewed toward family-sized residences:

• 1BR: ~8% of activity (Units like 7C, 6E). Size ~700–858 sqft,.

• 2BR: ~40% of activity (Lines C, D, some B). Sizes ~1,000–1,450 sqft. High Liquidity Segment,.

• 3BR: ~30% of activity (Lines A, B). Sizes ~1,600–2,000 sqft. Dominant Value Segment,.

• 4BR+: ~22% of activity (Lines A, PH). Sizes ~2,200–3,900 sqft,.

Influence on Behavior: The concentration of 3BR and 4BR units makes the building sensitive to the "family luxury" market. However, 1990s layouts (often lower ceilings and dated finishes compared to new devs) create friction. The 3BR units (Line B) have shown the highest volatility and susceptibility to price regression (Driver 4).

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

Note: Pursuant to the Sponsor Normalization Rule, sales from 2002–2004 marked "No Listing" or with missing DOM (e.g., 4B, 10C, 18B, 24A, 9B) are treated as Sponsor/Conversion Baseline and excluded from resale liquidity metrics,.

A. Liquidity

• Fastest: Unit B7 sold in 11 days (2025). Unit 11B sold in 14 days (2022). Unit 26B sold in 37 days (2016).

• Slowest: Unit 21B took 338 days (2019). Unit 10C took 256 days (2022). Unit 9A took 227 days (2015).

• Median Resale DOM: Approximately 86 days (Building Median). However, the dispersion is extreme; prime units can sit for nearly a year (21B) if mispriced, indicating a market that punishes ambition.

B. Price Strength

• Ceiling (Peak): Pricing power peaked in 2015–2016. Unit 9A sold for $2,205 PPSF ($4.425M) in 2015. Unit 26B sold for $2,204 PPSF in 2016.

• Baseline (Current): The 2022–2025 baseline has reset significantly lower.

  • Unit 18B (3BR): $1,818 PPSF (2025).

  • Unit B7 (2BR): $1,492 PPSF (2025).

  • Unit 24B (3BR): $1,745 PPSF (2022).

• Regression: Current trades are clearing ~15–20% below the building's 2015 nominal PPSF peaks.

C. Appreciation

• Negative Trend: Unit 24B lost -$350,000 nominally between 2013 and 2022,.

• Stagnation: Unit 18B lost -$30,000 nominally between 2017 and 2025,.

• Outliers: Unit 28A gained +15% over 8 years (2013–2021), a low CAGR (~1.8%) that barely tracked inflation,.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

The building is in a Structural Regression phase.

• Sponsor Baseline (2002–2004): Sales cleared $900–$1,100 PPSF,.

• Cycle Peak (2015–2016): Sales surged to $2,100–$2,205 PPSF (Units 9A, 26B).

• Correction (2019–2022): Prices compressed to $1,380–$1,745 PPSF (Units 10C, 24B),.

• Current Reality (2025): Recent sales cleared at $1,492–$1,818 PPSF.

• Trend: Bearish. Despite the NYXRCSA index rising to 331.14 (All-Time High), The Siena is trading well below its 2015/2016 highs, erasing nearly a decade of perceived value growth.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

Effective Annual Rent Calculation: (Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365).

A. Rent Capture

• Unit 26B (2024):

  • Rent: $15,500 ($113 PPSF).

  • DOM: 63 days.

  • Effective Rent: ~$12,824/mo. Status: Efficient.

• Unit PHA (2024):

  • Rent: $26,000 ($95 PPSF).

  • DOM: 61 days.

  • Effective Rent: ~$21,654/mo.

• Unit 4B (2024):

  • Rent: $7,500 ($74 PPSF).

  • DOM: 20 days.

  • Status: Strong Capture.

B. Rent Appreciation

• Deflation: Unit PHA rented for $28,000 in 2014 and $26,000 in 2024. -7.1% Nominal Decline over 10 years,.

• Volatility: Unit 24B rented for $12,500 in 2018 and $10,900 in 2019 (pre-pandemic), showing weakness even before 2020.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 50/100 (Mixed performance. Some units clear in <20 days, others lag for 250-300+ days. "No Listing" trades [18B, 6B] suggest reliance on off-market channels),.

• Rent Capture Score: 55/100 (High nominal rents [$95-$113 PPSF], but documented 10-year rent deflation on the Penthouse [PHA] and weakness in 3BRs severely penalizes the score),.

• Appreciation Score: 20/100 (Confirmed nominal losses on Unit 24B [-10%] and Unit 18B [-1%]. 2025 pricing is below 2015 levels. Zero Beta vs NYXRCSA),,.

• Composite Score: 41.0/100.

Category: Yield-Oriented (Lagging/Stagnant).

7. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES

Resale Depreciation (Capital Destruction):

• Unit 24B (3BR / 1,633 sqft):

  • Sold Jul 2013: $3,200,000 ($1,959 PPSF).

  • Sold Jul 2022: $2,850,000 ($1,745 PPSF).

  • Result: -10.9% Nominal Loss ($350k) over 9 years. Driver: 1 (Market Regime) & 4 (Unit Mix).,

Resale Stagnation (Dead Money):

• Unit 18B (3BR / 1,633 sqft):

  • Sold Feb 2017: $3,000,000 ($1,837 PPSF).

  • Sold Jul 2025: $2,970,000 ($1,818 PPSF).

  • Result: -1.0% Nominal Loss over 8.4 years. Driver: 1.,

Resale Appreciation (Modest Growth):

• Unit 12A (3BR / 2,006 sqft):

  • Sold Jan 2016: $3,800,000 ($1,894 PPSF).

  • Sold Jul 2019: $4,100,000 ($2,043 PPSF).

  • Result: +7.9% Nominal Gain over 3.4 years. Driver: 1.,

Rent Deflation:

• Unit PHA (5BR Rental):

  • Jul 2014 Rent: $28,000.

  • Apr 2024 Rent: $26,000.

  • Result: -7.1% Nominal Decrease over 9.8 years. Driver: 1.,

8. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Wealth Trap: Buying 3BR units (Line B) at 2013–2017 prices resulted in losses or zero growth by 2022–2025 (Units 24B, 18B),.

• Rent Deflation: The Penthouse rents for less today ($26k) than it did a decade ago ($28k). Do not project aggressive income growth,.

• Underperformance: Listing sources explicitly note the building "Underperforms Upper East Side by 11.7%".

9. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Siena (188 East 76 Street) is a Yield-Oriented condo that functions as a "generic luxury" utility asset but a wealth trap for equity investors holding 3-bedroom units. Despite the NYXRCSA index hitting an all-time high of 331.14 in 2025, resale values in this building have structurally regressed. Unit 24B realized an 11% nominal loss after a 9-year hold ($3.2M $\to$ $2.85M), and Unit 18B traded flat (-1%) between 2017 and 2025. While the building generates high nominal rental income ($15k–$26k/mo), the Penthouse has actually seen nominal rent deflation of 7% over the last decade. Investors should view this as a consumption asset, avoiding entry above $1,600 PPSF to mitigate the proven risk of capital erosion.

B³ SCORECARD

• Liquidity Score: 50

• Rent Capture Score: 55

• Appreciation Score: 20

• Composite Score: 41.0

• Category: Yield-Oriented (Lagging/Stagnant)

• Unit Mix: 40% 2BR / 30% 3BR / 22% 4BR+ [Transaction Weighted]

• Sponsor Normalization: Sales from 2002–2004 with "No Listing" or missing DOM reclassified as Sponsor/Conversion Baseline (approx. 10 transactions),.