301 West 115 Street

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Postwar Resale Condo (Built 2010).

• Scale: 12 Floors, 73 Units.

• Primary Category: Cyclical.

• Secondary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a deeply cyclical postwar condo that compounded wealth efficiently during its mid-cycle peak but currently suffers from pronounced secondary market mean-reversion and polarized liquidity. Early sponsor sales cleared at baseline pricing of $500–$700/SF in 2010–2012. The asset matured into a mid-cycle peak between 2017 and 2022, routinely achieving $1,000–$1,200+/SF. However, the mature resale market heading into 2024 and 2025 demonstrates broad mean-reversion, with core values cooling back to an $800–$950/SF baseline. This late-stage drawdown completely decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic all-time highs of 330–333 in late 2025 and early 2026. With heavy DOM friction emerging on 1BR and 3BR units (128 to 200+ days) and volatile rental vacancies on specific layouts, the building currently functions purely as a cyclical timing and yield play.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on historic sales data and explicit past sale segmentations across 80 past sales:

• 1BR: ~19% of sales volume (15 past sales).

• 2BR: ~45% of sales volume (36 past sales across 2 and 2.5 bath layouts).

• 3BR+: ~16% of sales volume (13 past sales across 3 and 4 bed layouts).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is structurally anchored by 2BR units. This concentration dictates the building's operational rhythm. Fortunately for the building, the dominant 2BR lines act as a functional liquidity engine, clearing at a relatively healthy 69-day median. However, the 1BR and 3BR segments are severely illiquid, acting as structural bottlenecks. This sizing imbalance also exposes the building to localized rental vacancy spikes, occasionally punishing investors with 100+ day rental DOMs on both 1BR and 2BR footprints.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: The dominant 2BR/2BA lines lead the building’s liquidity, clearing at a relatively efficient median of 69 days.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: 1BR and 3BR units suffer from chronic, destructive durations on the secondary market. 1BRs carry a median DOM of 128 days, while 3BR lines suffer from catastrophic drag ranging from 135 to 202 days. Recent clears demonstrate extreme market rejection on off-trend sizing: Unit 6H (1BR) sat for 392 days, Unit 3F (3BR) sat for 240 days, and Unit 3B (2BR) sat for 209 days.

B. Price Strength

• Mid-cycle premium stacks have significantly deteriorated. Lines that successfully commanded $1,050–$1,211/SF during the 2017-2022 peak market (e.g., 6B, PH3B, 3G) have largely corrected to a volatile baseline settling heavily between $800–$950/SF in recent 2024 clears (e.g., 2C at $805/SF, 4J at $952/SF, 3F at $859/SF). Penthouse exceptions (e.g., PH1C at $1,153/SF) act as rare structural outliers.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are deeply cyclical. Holders from the 2010–2012 sponsor baseline realized strong structural compounding (+60% to +70%) if they exited during the peak. Conversely, buyers attempting to exit in the late cycle exhibit negative compounding from the mid-cycle peak, surrendering up to 20% to 30% of their equity to mean reversion.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2010–2012 (Sponsor Clearance): Initial clearance volume heavily clustered at discounted baselines of $500–$700/SF.

• 2017–2022 (Mid-Cycle Peak): Rapid maturation moving into the $1,000–$1,200+/SF bracket.

• 2024–2025 (Drawdown / Normalization): A distinct cyclical reset, declining and settling between $800–$950/SF. Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. Value actively adjusted downward from the peak, entirely failing to track the continuous macro growth trend proven by the NYXRCSA index from 2024 to early 2026.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365.

• Example 1 (High Efficiency): Unit 2A (2BR). Achieved $5,950/mo. DOM 7. Effective Rent = $5,950 × (365 - 7) ÷ 365 = $5,835/mo.

• Example 2 (Moderate Leakage): Unit 5J (1BR). Achieved $3,900/mo. DOM 34. Effective Rent = $3,900 × (365 - 34) ÷ 365 = $3,536/mo.

• Example 3 (Severe Leakage): Unit 8B (1BR). Achieved $4,595/mo. DOM 119. Effective Rent = $4,595 × (365 - 119) ÷ 365 = $3,096/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent per SF is robust, frequently yielding $47 to $64/SF depending on the layout. While 2BR units can clear rapidly (frequently 7 to 26 days), overall rent capture is highly volatile. Numerous units (e.g., 8B at 119 days, 7J at 106 days, PH1D at 94 days) suffer from catastrophic localized DOM spikes, creating devastating cash flow leakage that completely destroys expected annual yields.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 55

  • Speed: Moderate to Poor. Normalized median resale DOM for 2BRs is healthy at 69 days, but violently offset by 128 to 202-day wait times on 1BR and 3BR layouts.

  • Consistency: Low. Extreme divergence between unit sizes creates structural bottlenecks.

• Rent Capture Score: 65

  • Efficiency: Strong nominal ($47–$64/SF).

  • Absorption: Volatile. Strong baseline rates are heavily compromised by extreme 90 to 119-day rental DOM outliers.

• Appreciation Score: 60

  • Durability: Cyclical. Widespread equity loss for late-stage peak buyers offsets the massive initial compounding experienced by the 2010-2012 sponsor cohort.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (55 × 0.35) + (65 × 0.30) + (60 × 0.35) = 59.75. Category Assignment: Cyclical / Yield-Oriented. The asset sits below the 65 threshold for a Hybrid classification. High friction costs in the late-cycle sales market and volatile rental leakage entirely prevent it from operating as a defensive core asset.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Appreciation (Early / Mid-Cycle Timing):

1. Unit 5C (2BR): Oct 2010 Sponsor Baseline ($609/SF) → Nov 2015 Sell ($1,057/SF with 21 DOM). Held 5.1 years. +73.5% change. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Market regime timing.

2. Unit 8A (3BR): Mar 2011 Buy ($612/SF) → Feb 2022 Sell ($1,031/SF with 135 DOM). Held 10.9 years. +68.4% change. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

3. Unit 3B (2BR): Jul 2010 Sponsor Baseline ($631/SF) → Jun 2021 Sell ($1,077/SF with 209 DOM). Held 10.9 years. +70.6% change. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. Unit 2C (2BR): Jun 2011 Sponsor Baseline ($504/SF) → Jun 2024 Sell ($805/SF with 35 DOM). Held 13.0 years. +59.7% change. Driver: Market regime timing.

Resale Depreciation / Normalization (Late Cycle Baseline Shifts): (Note: Because explicit back-to-back late-cycle trades are rare, the following map structural baseline decay of the mid-cycle peak against 2024 clears)

1. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 6B Peak Trade (Aug 2017 at $1,211/SF with 33 DOM) vs Unit 2C Late-Cycle Resale (Jun 2024 at $805/SF with 35 DOM). -33.5% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Line-level premium persistence.

2. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit PH3B Peak Trade (Nov 2021 at $1,102/SF with 71 DOM) vs Unit 4J Late-Cycle Resale (May 2024 at $952/SF). -13.6% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Line-level premium persistence.

3. 3BR Line Normalization: Unit 3G Peak Trade (May 2022 at $1,082/SF with 23 DOM) vs Unit 3F Late-Cycle Resale (Apr 2024 at $859/SF with 240 DOM). -20.6% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 6H Late-Cycle Resale (Oct 2022 at $1,048/SF) sitting for an extreme 392 DOM. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Late-Stage Mean Reversion: Buyers who purchased during the 2017–2022 peak have seen their equity structurally decay into an $800–$950/SF reality, completely missing the recent macro upswings of the broader NYXRCSA index which hit ~330+ in early 2026.

• Severe Illiquidity on 1BR/3BR Layouts: During cyclical softening, the building's non-core inventory routinely sits for highly destructive intervals on the sales market (128 to 202 days), representing deep secondary friction.

• Rental Leakage: Landlords are exposed to volatile vacancy; unpredictable rental DOM spikes (90 to 119 days) completely destroy gross yield expectations on specific units.

• Avoid: Purchasing premium units above $1,000/SF under the assumption of short-term appreciation or immediate liquidity. The high holding cost of time during cyclical downturns entirely neutralizes theoretical upside.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

301 West 115 Street is a deeply cyclical postwar condo that generated strong wealth for its early 2010–2012 buyers but aggressively punishes mid-cycle entrants attempting to exit today. The building's operational rhythm is highly bifurcated; while its core 2BR units clear the resale market in a functional 69 days, its 1BR and 3BR layouts suffer from catastrophic 128 to 202-day waits. Furthermore, pricing has drawn down significantly from its $1,000–$1,200+/SF mid-cycle peak to an $800–$950/SF plateau today, entirely untethered from the historic all-time highs of the NYXRCSA benchmark. Investors must treat this purely as a yield/timing play on discounted cost bases, strictly avoiding the assumption that these units will offer defensive capital preservation or frictionless rental exits.

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