One Manhattan Square (252 South Street)
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
One Manhattan Square (1 Manhattan Square) is a high-scale, mature development completed in 2019, consisting of 815 units across 80 floors. Based on post-sponsor behavior and significant rental volume (406 recorded rentals), the building is classified as Yield-Oriented. While it outperforms its immediate sub-neighborhood (Two Bridges) by 5.0%, its resale performance is characterized by high transaction friction. The asset serves as a high-velocity rental engine, but capital appreciation is stalled, with most secondary trades occurring at or below original sponsor baselines, representing a mean-reverting pricing trend.
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
The building's behavior is driven by a heavy concentration of small-to-mid-size footprints which facilitates high rental churn.
1BR: 332 recorded sales (approx. 54% of activity). Median PPSF: $1,998.
2BR: 235 recorded sales (approx. 38% of activity). Median PPSF: $2,108.
3BR+: 44 recorded sales (approx. 8% of activity). Median PPSF: $1,875–$3,447.
Analysis: The 54% 1BR concentration creates high liquidity in the rental market but subjects the building to unit mix imbalance during resale cycles, as these units face the most competition from new inventory in Downtown Manhattan.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
Liquidity (Fastest Lines): The Line A and Line G stacks exhibit the highest resale liquidity, with recent 2024–2025 transactions showing shorter DOM when priced aggressively (e.g., Unit 76A at 1 day).
Price Strength: Line J and Line C (3BR configurations) command the highest premiums, with median PPSF reaching $2,233–$2,372.
Appreciation: Compounding is currently negligible. For example, Line M (2BR) units that closed in 2020 at $2,279,484 are reselling in 2024–2025 at $2,330,701–$2,450,000, representing a CAGR of ~1.8%. This significantly trails the NYXRCSA index, which stood at 331.1 in late 2025.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
2019–2022: Sponsor-Driven Period; pricing was established at a median of ~$2,060 PPSF.
2023–2025: Resale/Secondary Market; pricing has remained Flat/Cyclical. Recent 2025 sales like Unit 67F ($2,203 PPSF) and Unit 16E ($1,830 PPSF) show no significant upward movement from the 2019 baseline.
Conclusion: The building is Flat; it has failed to capture the broader NYC condo growth reflected in the NYXRCSA index since its inception.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
Mandatory Metric: Effective Annual Rent
Unit 75E (3BR, 2026): Achieved $10,995. DOM: 97. Effective Rent: $8,072.
Unit 73E (3BR, 2025): Achieved $11,550. DOM: 218. Effective Rent: $4,650.
Unit 26K (1BR, 2025): Achieved $5,450. DOM: 14. Effective Rent: $5,241.
Analysis: The building experiences massive income leakage in larger units (3BRs), where rental DOM can exceed 200 days, destroying the net yield. Conversely, 1BR units (Line K, Line N) show high rent capture due to rapid absorption (DOM < 30).
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
Liquidity Score: 50 (High volume, but resale DOM is inconsistent, ranging from 1 to 379 days).
Rent Capture Score: 60 (Strong nominal rents of $90–$115/SF, but significantly leaked in larger units due to high DOM).
Appreciation Score: 25 (CAGR is near zero; most lines are mean-reverting to 2019 prices).
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: 44.25
Category: Yield-Oriented (At Risk)
Justification: The building functions as a rental factory with high nominal yields, but the Appreciation Score is too low to qualify as a Hybrid or Core asset. It is "At Risk" because effective income is highly sensitive to vacancy (DOM).
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Resale Appreciation (Nominal)
Unit 26M (2BR): $2,279,484 (2020) → $2,450,000 (2024). +7.5% (+1.8% CAGR). Driver: Line-level premium persistence.
Unit 65F (2BR): $2,469,634 (2025) → $2,585,263 (2025). +4.7%. Driver: Market regime timing.
Resale Depreciation/Stagnation
Unit 66J (3BR): $5,311,900 (2021) → $4,999,999 (2023). -5.8%. Driver: Liquidity shift.
Unit 29L (2BR): $2,383,285 (2019) → $2,295,062 (2025). -3.7%. Driver: Unit mix imbalance.
Unit 53E (1BR): $1,373,546 (2023) → $1,350,000 (2025). -1.7%. Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Chronic Vacancy Leakage: 3BR units (Line E, Line J) have demonstrated rental DOM as high as 218 days, which negates the high nominal rent.
Resale Friction: While the median DOM is listed as 10 days, this is skewed by sponsor closings; organic resales like Unit 11K (379 days) show significant liquidity shift risks.
Red Flag: Do not buy 3BR units as pure yield plays; the absorption time (DOM) is too high to maintain a consistent cash flow.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
One Manhattan Square is a high-density, Yield-Oriented asset that excels in nominal rent generation but fails to deliver capital compounding. Post-sponsor behavior shows a flat PPSF trend that has not kept pace with the NYXRCSA index since 2019. Income is effectively captured in the 1BR/2BR stacks (Line K, Line N), but the larger 3BR units suffer from extreme income leakage due to prolonged vacancy periods. The building’s high velocity (615 sales) ensures exit liquidity, but at the cost of price appreciation, making it an asset for cash-flow-driven investors rather than capital preservation.
B³ SCORECARD
Liquidity Score: 50
Rent Capture Score: 60
Appreciation Score: 25
Composite Score: 44.25
Category: Yield-Oriented (At Risk)
Unit Mix: 1BR Dominant (54%)
Disclosures: Approximately 450 transactions from 2019–2022 were reclassified as Sponsor-Driven due to the DOM ≤ 30 rule and proximity to building launch. This normalization reveals that the true resale median DOM is significantly higher than the aggregate 10-day metric.