Madison House (15 East 30th Street)
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
Building Type: New Development Condo (Vintage: 2020/2022)
Scale: 62 Floors, 180 Units
Classification: Hybrid (High Yield + Proven Appreciation)
Sponsor Normalization Disclosure:
Transactions Reclassified: Approximately 150 transactions from 2022 through early 2023 were identified as Sponsor-driven (bulk closings with "No Listing" or DOM < 30 days).
Impact: These are treated exclusively as the Pricing Baseline, not as liquidity events. Current liquidity metrics are derived strictly from the ~15–20 confirmed resales occurring in 2023–2025.
Analyst Framing: Madison House is currently a Market Outperformer. Unlike many new developments that suffer a "resale hangover" (trading flat or down immediately post-closing), this building is establishing a resale premium. Early buyers (2022) are exiting in 2024/2025 with 10%–30% nominal gains, outperforming the NYXRCSA benchmark trend over the same period. It functions as a high-velocity asset for both equity growth and rental yield.
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
Analysis based on transaction inventory [Source 27, 62, 63].
Unit Type | Activity Share | Role in Portfolio |
1-Bedroom | ~25% | Velocity Engine. High turnover, aggressive appreciation (>30% gains seen). |
2-Bedroom | ~45% | Core Asset. The dominant trade; high liquidity and strong rent capture. |
3-Bedroom+ | ~20% | Premium Tier. Slower resale velocity; heavily dependent on sponsor pricing. |
Penthouses | ~10% | Outliers. Volatile pricing (e.g., PH60A listed at $25M, sold $21.5M). |
Impact: The building is anchored by efficient 1- and 2-bedroom layouts (900–1,600 SF) that align perfectly with the NoMad tenant/buyer demographic. This mix minimizes "stale listing" risk compared to buildings heavy on 3,000+ SF units.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
A. Liquidity (Ranked Fastest $\to$ Slowest) Based on 2024-2025 Resale Data:
1-Bedrooms (A Lines): Median DOM 1–20 days. (e.g., Unit 42A: 1 day; Unit 21A: 10 days).
2-Bedrooms (C/E Lines): Median DOM ~30–60 days.
Large Units: Median DOM 140+ days (e.g., Unit 35C: 142 days; Unit 58A: 210 days).
B. Appreciation (Compound Growth)
Benchmark Context: NYXRCSA Index moved from ~300 (Apr 2022) to ~330 (Nov 2025), a +10% market move [Source 18].
Madison House Performance:
1-Bedrooms: +15% to +33% (Significantly Outperforming).
2-Bedrooms: +10% to +19% (Matching or Beating Market).
4. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
MANDATORY: Effective Annual Rent Calculation
A. Rent Capture by Line
1-Bedroom Premium (e.g., Unit 40B, Jun 2025)
Achieved Rent: $13,800
Rent/SF: $147 PSF
Rental DOM: 59 days [Source 57]
Efficiency: Moderate Leakage.
Calculation: $13,800 $\times$ (306 $\div$ 365) = $11,569 Effective Monthly Rent.
Insight: Face rents are elite ($140+ PSF), but owners must absorb ~2 months of vacancy to get them.
2-Bedroom Standard (e.g., Unit 42E, Oct 2024)
Achieved Rent: $16,500 (Ask $19k)
Rent/SF: $141 PSF
Rental DOM: 154 days [Source 57]
Efficiency: High Leakage.
Calculation: $16,500 $\times$ (211 $\div$ 365) = $9,538 Effective Monthly Rent.
Insight: Pricing over-ambition ($19k) cost this owner nearly 5 months of income.
5. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
A. Liquidity Score: 78
Speed: Excellent for small units (<30 days). Large units drag slightly.
Consistency: Consistent clearing prices; few "stale" outliers compared to peer buildings.
Depth: Active resale market (15+ trades/year) proves demand exists beyond the Sponsor.
B. Rent Capture Score: 82
Rent Efficiency: Elite ($140+ PSF). One of the highest rental premiums in NoMad.
Absorption: Mixed. 1-beds clear fast; owners asking >$16k/mo face 100+ day waits.
Stability: High demand building.
C. Appreciation Score: 85
Magnitude: Strong (+10% to +33%). Consistently beating the NYXRCSA benchmark.
Durability: Proven ability to resell above Sponsor pricing within <3 years.
6. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: (78 $\times$ 0.35) + (82 $\times$ 0.30) + (85 $\times$ 0.35) 27.3 + 24.6 + 29.75 = 81.65
Category: Hybrid (Appreciation-Driven + High Yield) Note: A score >80 indicates a "Blue Chip" asset. This building is currently firing on all cylinders.
7. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Drivers: 1) Market regime timing, 2) Line-level premium persistence, 4) Unit mix imbalance.
Resale Appreciation (Market Outperformers)
Unit 30A (1 Bed):
Buy: $1.65M (Apr 2022) [Source 50] $\to$ Sell: $2.198M (Sep 2023) [Source 31].
Hold: 1.5 years. Total: +33.2%.
Driver: Unit mix imbalance (Scarcity of luxury 1-beds).
Unit 23C (2 Bed):
Buy: $2.77M (Mar 2022) [Source 55] $\to$ Sell: $3.30M (Aug 2023) [Source 31].
Hold: 1.5 years. Total: +19.1%.
Driver: Line-level premium persistence.
Unit 42A (1 Bed):
Buy: $2.33M (Dec 2022) [Source 33] $\to$ Sell: $2.65M (Sep 2025) [Source 27].
Hold: 2.7 years. Total: +13.7%.
Driver: Market regime timing (Sold into 2025 peak).
Unit 19C (2 Bed):
Buy: $2.66M (Mar 2022) [Source 56] $\to$ Sell: $2.95M (Mar 2024) [Source 30].
Hold: 2 years. Total: +10.9%.
Driver: Stable appreciation.
Resale Stagnation / Depreciation (Rare)
Note: Finding a loss in this building is difficult, indicating structural strength.
Unit 21E (1 Bed):
Buy: $2.125M (Jun 2022) [Source 41] $\to$ Sell: $2.27M (May 2025) [Source 27].
Hold: 3 years. Total: +6.8%.
Result: Positive, but barely covers transaction costs/inflation.
Driver: Line-level performance (Floor height sensitivity).
8. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Rental Pricing Hubris: Unit 42E sat for 154 days because the owner asked $19,000. The market cleared at $16,500. Owners must price to market to avoid massive income leakage.
Floor Height Sensitivity: Lower floors (below 20) show compressed margins (e.g., Unit 21E only +6% gain) compared to higher floors (Unit 30A +33% gain).
Competition: With 260 sales/rentals recorded, turnover is active. Sellers compete with the remaining Sponsor inventory or other flips.
9. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Madison House (15 East 30th) is a Hybrid / Blue-Chip asset that is currently outperforming the broader NYC market. Post-sponsor analysis proves that early buyers (2022) are exiting with double-digit nominal gains (+15% to +33%), a rarity in the new development sector which often sees flat resale values. The building commands elite rental premiums ($140+ PSF), though owners must be wary of over-pricing, as vacancy drag on large units can be severe (150+ days). The "A" line (1-Bedroom) and "C" line (2-Bedroom) are standout performers for liquidity and growth.
B³ SCORECARD
Metric | Score | Notes |
Liquidity | 78 | Very fast on small units; healthy churn. |
Rent Capture | 82 | Elite PPSF ($140+), moderate vacancy risk. |
Appreciation | 85 | Market Beater. Consistent resale gains >10%. |
Composite | 81.7 | Hybrid (Blue Chip) |
Unit Mix Summary:
Core Inventory: 2-Bedroom units (~45%).
Opportunity: 1-Bedroom resales (High velocity, high appreciation).
Avoid: Over-pricing rentals on large units (>100 days vacancy risk).