JW Marriott Essex House (160 Central Park South)

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

JW Marriott Essex House (160 Central Park South) is a mature prewar resale condo (built 1930) consisting of 182 units across 42 floors. Based on post-sponsor behavior, the building is classified as Yield-Oriented. Despite its location, the building underperforms the Midtown Center sub-market by 37.8%. Transaction data reveals a building characterized by high rental velocity (228 rentals) but significant "income leakage" and anemic capital appreciation, with many secondary trades occurring at or below 2007–2008 price levels.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

The building’s inventory is transaction-weighted toward 1BR and 2BR configurations, which drive the majority of market churn.

• 1BR: ~110 sales (approx. 45% of activity). Median PPSF: $1,438–$1,559.

• 2BR: ~72 sales (approx. 29% of activity). Median PPSF: $1,568–$2,566.

• 3BR+: ~22 sales (approx. 9% of activity). Median PPSF: $2,041–$3,500.

• Studios: ~11 sales (approx. 4% of activity). Median PPSF: $1,503.

Analysis: The heavy concentration of 1BR units creates high liquidity for rentals but subjects the building to unit mix imbalance during resale cycles, leading to high median Days on Market (DOM) as these units compete with newer nearby inventory.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

• Liquidity (Fastest Lines): The Line 14 and Line 11 (1BR/Studio) stacks exhibit the highest relative resale frequency, though building-wide median DOM remains critically high at 177 days.

• Price Strength: Line 01 (3BR stacks) and high-floor Lines 03 and 05 command structural premiums, with PPSF reaching $1,923–$3,500 in recent 2025 trades.

• Appreciation: Compounding is near-zero or negative at the line level. For example, Line 14 (1BR) sold for $1,855 PPSF in 2008 and traded for $1,313 PPSF in 2024. This significantly trails the NYXRCSA index, which grew to 331.14 by Oct 2025.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2004–2008: Early resale/conversion establishment; pricing clustered at a high baseline of $2,000–$3,000 PPSF.

• 2015–2019: Flat/Cyclical; pricing failed to maintain early-cycle peaks, often trading between $1,500–$1,800 PPSF.

• 2020–2025: Drawdown/Stagnation; recent trades (e.g., Unit 1132 at $1,166 PPSF in 2025 vs. $1,833 in 2015) indicate the building is mean-reverting toward its lowest historical floors.

• Conclusion: Flat/Cyclical.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

Mandatory Metric: Effective Annual Rent

• Unit 1817 (1BR, 2025): Achieved $11,000. DOM: 111. Effective Rent: $7,654.

• Unit 1005 (2BR, 2025): Achieved $28,000. DOM: 164. Effective Rent: $15,419.

• Unit 1132 (2BR, 2024): Achieved $9,500. DOM: 130. Effective Rent: $6,109.

• Unit 2501 (3BR, 2025): Achieved $50,000. DOM: 2. Effective Rent: $49,726.

Analysis: The building suffers from extreme income leakage in 1BR and 2BR lines, where high absorption friction (DOM > 100) destroys 30% to 45% of the annual income.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 35 (Speed is critically low; 177-day median DOM indicates high transaction friction).

• Rent Capture Score: 50 (High nominal rents are compromised by consistent vacancy leakage in the engine lines).

• Appreciation Score: 30 (Negative to flat CAGR across most lines relative to the NYXRCSA benchmark).

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

• Composite Score: 37.75

• Category: Yield-Oriented

• Justification: The building functions as a rental asset with high nominal yields, but it fails to protect capital (Appreciation < 40) or clear units efficiently (Liquidity < 40).

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES

Resale Appreciation (Nominal)

1. Unit 1001 (3BR): $1,900,000 (2003) → $6,900,000 (2021). +263%. Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 915 (3BR): $2,800,000 (2004) → $4,950,000 (2022). +76%. Driver: Line-level premium persistence.

Resale Depreciation/Stagnation

1. Unit 1814 (1BR): $2,189,237 (2008) → $1,550,000 (2024). -29.2%. Driver: Sponsor price normalization.

2. Unit 1132 (2BR): $2,200,000 (2015) → $1,400,000 (2025). -36.4%. Driver: Liquidity shift (DOM 602).

3. Unit 2118/20 (2BR): $3,200,000 (2019) → $2,500,000 (2025). -21.9%. Driver: Market regime timing.

4. Unit 1001 (3BR): $6,900,000 (2021) → $4,350,000 (2025). -36.9%. Driver: Liquidity shift (DOM 290).

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Extreme Rent Leakage: 1BR and 2BR units frequently sit vacant for 130–160 days, destroying the investment yield.

• Chronic Sale Friction: The 2BR stacks (Line 46, Line 32) show DOM often exceeding 240 days.

• Red Flag: Do not buy Line 14 or Line 32 for capital growth; these lines show the most consistent price erosion from sponsor-era baselines.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The JW Marriott Essex House is a Yield-Oriented asset that operates as a high-velocity rental engine but fails to preserve capital value. Post-sponsor behavior is characterized by a downward price mean-reversion, where 2024–2025 trades are often significantly lower than 2008 or 2015 peaks. While the 3BR stacks (Line 01) capture occasional absolute premiums, the building’s overall performance is plagued by extreme income leakage due to absorption times exceeding 150 days. It is an asset for cash-flow seekers who can manage high vacancy risk, rather than for defensive capital preservation.

B³ SCORECARD

• Liquidity Score: 35

• Rent Capture Score: 50

• Appreciation Score: 30

• Composite Score: 37.75

• Category: Yield-Oriented

• Unit Mix: 1BR Dominant (45%)

Disclosures: 5 transactions (Units 1009, 807, 1111, 2707, 1101) were reclassified as Sponsor-Driven due to the <30 day DOM rule within the building's conversion cycle. This normalization reveals a true resale median DOM that is 12% higher than the building's aggregate reported average.