Fitzgerald - 257 West 117 Street

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Postwar Resale Condo (Built 1892, Converted 2009).

• Scale: 7 Floors, 47 Units.

• Primary Category: Cyclical.

• Secondary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a deeply cyclical building that compounded wealth during its initial decade but currently suffers from pronounced secondary market friction and late-stage mean reversion. Early sponsor sales and pre-conversion trades cleared at discounted baselines of $500–$670/SF between 2008 and 2012. The asset matured into a mid-cycle peak between 2015 and 2018, routinely achieving $880–$990+/SF. However, the mature resale market heading into the 2020s demonstrates mean-reversion, with values cooling back to a $750–$930/SF baseline. This recent drawdown completely decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic all-time highs of 330–333 in late 2025 and early 2026. With heavy DOM friction on all unit lines (frequently 130+ days) and volatile rental vacancies on larger layouts, the building currently functions purely as a cyclical timing play.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on historic sales data and transaction weighting across 82 explicitly categorized layout records:

• 1BR: ~45% of sales volume (37 transactions across 1.5, 2, and 2.5 bath layouts).

• 2BR: ~46% of sales volume (38 transactions across 2 and 2.5 bath layouts).

• 3BR+: ~9% of sales volume (7 transactions across 2 and 4 bath layouts).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is evenly split between 1BR and 2BR units. However, this balance has failed to generate a high-velocity liquidity engine. Unlike functional buildings where 1BRs trade rapidly, both the 1BR and 2BR segments here suffer from structural friction, sitting for median durations of 140 days and 134 days, respectively. On the rental side, 1BRs perform efficiently, but the 2BR and 3BR layouts frequently suffer from localized vacancy spikes, leading to cash flow leakage.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: True high-velocity liquidity is absent. The fastest core segment—2BR/2BA units—still requires a median of 134 days to clear the market.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: 1BR units suffer from chronic resistance, averaging 140 days on the market. The building's largest 3BR layouts sit for destructive durations, carrying median DOMs between 206 days and 400 days depending on the bath count.

B. Price Strength

• Mid-cycle premium stacks have broken down. Units that successfully commanded $950–$1,000/SF during the 2016-2019 peak market (e.g., 6A, 4E) have corrected to a volatile baseline settling between $750–$930/SF in recent trailing clears.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are deeply cyclical. Holders from the 2008–2012 sponsor baseline realized solid structural compounding if they exited during the peak. Conversely, buyers who entered near the 2018–2020 peak exhibit negative compounding and equity destruction upon exit today.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2008–2012 (Sponsor Clearance): Initial clearance volume heavily clustered at $500–$670/SF.

• 2015–2019 (Mid-Cycle Peak): Rapid maturation moving into the $880–$990/SF bracket, with occasional premium clears exceeding $1,200/SF.

• 2020–2022 (Drawdown / Normalization): A distinct cyclical reset, declining and settling violently downward to $750–$930/SF. Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. Value actively adjusted downward from the peak, entirely failing to track the upward macro growth proven by the NYXRCSA index reaching ~332 in early 2026.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365.

• Example 1 (High Efficiency): Unit 4G (1BR). Achieved $3,600/mo. DOM 13. Effective Rent = $3,600 × (365 - 13) ÷ 365 = $3,471/mo.

• Example 2 (Moderate Leakage): Unit 3A (2BR). Achieved $3,800/mo. DOM 46. Effective Rent = $3,800 × (365 - 46) ÷ 365 = $3,321/mo.

• Example 3 (Catastrophic Leakage): Unit 3G (2BR). Achieved $3,000/mo. DOM 166. Effective Rent = $3,000 × (365 - 166) ÷ 365 = $1,635/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent per SF functions adequately, frequently yielding $34 to $51/SF. However, true rent capture is highly volatile across layout sizes. While 1BR lines frequently absorb tenants in 13 to 28 days, the 2BR and 3BR layouts routinely suffer from catastrophic localized DOM spikes (e.g., 83 days, 97 days, 166 days), creating devastating cash flow leakage that heavily erodes realized annual yields.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 45

  • Speed: Poor. Normalized median resale DOM frequently sits at 134 to 140 days for core inventory, dragging up to 400 days on 3BRs.

  • Consistency: Low. Structurally impaired by varied clearance times across all layouts.

• Rent Capture Score: 65

  • Efficiency: Moderate nominal ($34–$51/SF).

  • Absorption: Volatile. Exceptional baseline rates on 1BRs are severely compromised by extreme 80 to 160-day rental DOM outliers on larger lines.

• Appreciation Score: 60

  • Durability: Cyclical. Equity loss for late-stage peak buyers (2018-2021) offsets the compounding experienced by the initial 2008-2012 cohort.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (45 × 0.35) + (65 × 0.30) + (60 × 0.35) = 56.25. Category Assignment: Cyclical / Yield-Oriented. The asset sits well below the 65 threshold for a Hybrid classification. High friction costs in the sales and rental markets entirely prevent it from operating as a defensive core asset.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Appreciation (Early / Mid-Cycle Timing):

1. Unit 6A (2BR): Apr 2011 Buy ($575,311 at $558/SF) → May 2019 Sell ($1,056,000 at $960/SF with 280 DOM). Held 8.1 years. +72% change (CAGR ~7.0%). Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

2. Unit 4A (2BR): Jul 2012 Buy ($613,495 at $572/SF) → Aug 2021 Sell ($990,000 at $900/SF with 42 DOM). Held 9.1 years. +57% change (CAGR ~5.1%). Driver: Market regime timing.

3. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 4G (Jul 2008 Sponsor Trade at $679/SF) vs Unit 4G (Sep 2016 Resale at $952/SF with 140 DOM). +40% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 4C (Jul 2008 Sponsor Trade at $669/SF) vs Unit 4C (Feb 2022 Resale at $761/SF with 180 DOM). +13.7% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

Resale Depreciation (Late Cycle / Structural Baseline Shifts):

1. Unit 4E (1BR): Mar 2018 Peak Buy ($960,000 at $993/SF) → Mar 2021 Sell ($870,000 at $929/SF with 116 DOM). Held 3.0 years. -6.4% change. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

2. Unit 2D (2BR): Oct 2020 Peak Buy ($875,000 at $934/SF) → Oct 2021 Sell ($999,999 at $825/SF with 343 DOM). Held 1.0 years. -11.6% change. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

3. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 3F (Oct 2015 Mid-cycle Trade at $892/SF) vs Unit 3F (May 2021 Resale at $751/SF with 11 DOM). -15.8% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

4. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 5B (Oct 2015 Peak Trade at $907/SF) vs Unit 4C (Feb 2022 Resale at $761/SF with 180 DOM). -16% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Chronic Illiquidity on Multiple Layouts: The building's inventory routinely sits for massive intervals on the sales market (134 to 140+ days for standard inventory), representing deep secondary friction.

• Late-Stage Mean Reversion: Buyers who purchased during the 2016–2019 peak have seen their equity structurally decay, missing the recent macro upswings of the broader NYXRCSA index which hit ~332 in early 2026.

• Rental Leakage: Landlords are exposed to volatile vacancy; unpredictable rental DOM spikes (frequently 80 to 160+ days on 2BR and 3BR layouts) completely destroy gross yield expectations on large footprints.

• Avoid: Purchasing 2BR or 3BR units under the assumption of short-term appreciation or immediate liquidity. The high holding cost of time completely neutralizes theoretical upside.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Fitzgerald (257 West 117th Street) is a deeply cyclical postwar conversion that generated solid wealth for its early 2008–2012 buyers but aggressively punishes late-cycle entrants today. The building's operational rhythm is dragged down by heavy secondary market illiquidity, resulting in 134 to 140-day median waits for resale clears across its core 1BR and 2BR layouts. Furthermore, pricing has drawn down from its $880–$990+/SF peak to a $750–$930/SF plateau, entirely untethered from the all-time highs of the NYXRCSA benchmark. Investors must treat this purely as a yield/timing play on heavily discounted cost bases, utilizing the 1BR units to capture functional rental yields while strictly avoiding the assumption that these units will offer defensive capital preservation or efficient secondary exits.

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