Ellington On The Park - 130 Bradhurst Avenue

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Postwar Resale Condop (Built 2008).

• Scale: 12 Floors, 159 Recorded Sales.

• Primary Category: Cyclical.

• Secondary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a building that experienced massive initial cyclical appreciation from its 2010 basement but has since entirely mean-reverted, harshly punishing mid-cycle buyers. Early sponsor sales cleared at highly discounted baseline pricing ($350–$450/SF) in 2010–2011, allowing early holders to capture immense equity as the building matured to a mid-cycle peak of $850–$910+/SF between 2016 and 2018. However, the mature resale market (2023–2026) demonstrates massive friction and price deterioration, with valuations correcting steeply downward to $450–$660/SF. This late-stage mean-reversion completely decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic highs of 330–333 in late 2025 and early 2026. With capital preservation failing over the last 6 years and catastrophic resale illiquidity on larger units, the building functions best purely as a cyclical trade or a Yield-Oriented asset via rental capture.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION Based on transaction-weighted data across explicitly sized recorded sales:

• 1BR: ~17% of sales volume (11 transactions).

• 2BR: ~63% of sales volume (41 transactions).

• 3BR+: ~20% of sales volume (13 transactions).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is heavily anchored by 2BR units. While 1BRs form a somewhat reliable backbone for liquidity—clearing the sales market in a median of 77 days—the building's dominant 2BR and 3BR inventory suffers catastrophic illiquidity. This unit size imbalance creates a massive structural drag, causing standard 2BRs to sit for 144 to 294 days, and 3BRs to suffer an extreme median DOM of 653 days when attempting to offload.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: 1BR lines clear efficiently relative to the building, moving in a median of 77 days when priced accurately.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: The building's core 2BR and 3BR units sit for chronic, destructive durations on the resale market. 2BR/2BA layouts sit for a median of 294 days, while 3BR layouts sit for a median of 653 days. Recent specific examples include Unit 213 (1BR) at 186 days, Unit 905 (2BR) at 144 days, and Unit 801 (2BR) at 322 days.

B. Price Strength

• Mid-cycle premium stacks (high floors and large units) have broken down entirely. Units that successfully commanded $850–$912/SF between 2016 and 2018 have corrected to a volatile baseline of roughly $450–$660/SF today.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are heavily cyclical. Holders from the 2010–2012 sponsor baseline realized structural compounding, but buyers who entered during the 2016–2018 mid-cycle peak exhibit severe negative compounding and widespread equity destruction.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2010–2012 (Sponsor Clearance): High volume clearing at heavily discounted baselines of $350–$480/SF.

• 2016–2018 (Mid-Cycle Peak): Rapid expansion and premium realization, peaking at $850–$912/SF.

• 2023–2026 (Drawdown / Normalization): A drastic reset and liquidity crisis, settling violently back down to $450–$669/SF. Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. Value is currently adjusting steeply downward from the 2018 mid-cycle peak, entirely failing to track the macro growth proven by the NYXRCSA index from 2020 to 2026.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365

• Example 1 (High Efficiency): Unit 311 (3BR). Achieved $3,700/mo. DOM 10. Effective Rent = $3,700 × (365 - 10) ÷ 365 = $3,598/mo.

• Example 2 (Moderate Efficiency): Unit 1202 (2BR). Achieved $3,500/mo. DOM 37. Effective Rent = $3,500 × (365 - 37) ÷ 365 = $3,145/mo.

• Example 3 (Severe Leakage): Unit 1001 (2BR). Achieved $3,900/mo. DOM 167. Effective Rent = $3,900 × (365 - 167) ÷ 365 = $2,115/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Rent per SF performs moderately on nominal terms, yielding $40 to $46/SF. The building captures yield functionally on select units, but instances of extreme DOM friction (e.g., 167 days, 110 days) severely destroy localized annual yields, creating a volatile rental profile.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 20

  • Speed: Failing. Normalized resale DOM exceeds 144 to 294 days for 2BR layouts and 650+ days for 3BRs.

  • Consistency: Low. Extreme friction on the secondary market.

• Rent Capture Score: 68

  • Efficiency: Moderate ($40–$46/SF).

  • Absorption: Volatile. Strong clears on some lines (10-18 DOM) completely offset by massive outliers (110, 167 DOM).

• Appreciation Score: 35

  • Durability: Cyclical. Widespread equity loss for peak buyers (2016-2018), but excellent historical compounding for initial 2010–2012 sponsors.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (20 × 0.35) + (68 × 0.30) + (35 × 0.35) = 39.65 Category Assignment: Yield-Oriented / Cyclical. The asset completely fails defensive metrics due to extreme resale DOM drag on large layouts and late-stage capital destruction, functioning most predictably as a discounted rental income vehicle.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Appreciation (Early Cycle Timing):

1. Unit 1003 (3BR): Jun 2012 Buy ($483/SF) → Jun 2018 Sell ($852/SF). Held 6.0 years. +76% change (CAGR ~9.9%). Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 705 (3BR): Apr 2012 Buy ($499/SF) → Jul 2018 Sell ($831/SF). Held 6.3 years. +66% change (CAGR ~8.4%). Driver: Market regime timing.

3. Unit 1201 (2BR): Jan 2013 Buy ($457/SF) → Feb 2026 Sell ($630/SF with 139 DOM). Held 13.1 years. +38% change (CAGR ~2.5%). Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. Unit 213 (1BR): Feb 2010 Buy (~$301/SF inferred from $251,597) → Apr 2026 Sell ($453/SF with 186 DOM). Held 16.2 years. +50% change (CAGR ~2.5%). Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

Resale Depreciation (Late Cycle / Structural Baseline Shifts): (Note: As mid-cycle buyers have struggled to exit, these examples compare identical or equivalent line clears from the 2016-2018 peak to the current 2023-2026 trough).

1. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 1106 Peak Trade (Dec 2017 at $912/SF) vs Unit 1206 Resale (Mar 2023 at $669/SF). -26% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

2. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 713 Peak Trade (Nov 2017 at $678/SF) vs Unit 1103 Resale (Oct 2024 at $650/SF with 63 DOM). -4% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

3. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 1003 Peak Trade (Jun 2018 at $852/SF) vs Unit 1201 Resale (Feb 2026 at $630/SF with 139 DOM). -26% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 414 Mid-cycle Trade (Jul 2017 at $526/SF) vs Unit 213 Resale (Apr 2026 at $453/SF with 186 DOM). -14% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Catastrophic Resale Illiquidity on Large Units: The building's core inventory (2BR and 3BR units) routinely sits for incredibly destructive durations (294 days to 653 days median).

• Late-Stage Mean Reversion: Buyers who purchased during the 2016–2018 peak have seen their baseline stack equity structurally destroyed (-26% in some lines), completely missing the recent all-time highs of the broader NYC macro index.

• Avoid: Do not buy 2BR or 3BR units anticipating capital appreciation or a liquid exit. The friction costs (time value of money via 300-600+ DOMs) entirely neutralize theoretical values.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ellington On The Park (130 Bradhurst Avenue) is a deeply cyclical, Yield-Oriented postwar condop that currently traps late-stage buyers in catastrophic resale illiquidity. While the asset compounded wealth immensely for its initial 2010–2012 sponsor buyers, those entering at the 2016–2018 mid-cycle peak have suffered structural equity destruction, with recent building-wide valuations retreating to $450–$660/SF while battling 150-to-650 day market durations on large layouts. Compounding this, the asset's trajectory has fully decoupled from the all-time highs tracked by the NYXRCSA benchmark. Despite capital preservation failures, the building operates adequately as a discounted rental vehicle, though occasional extreme vacancy downtime threatens yields. Investors should avoid this building for defensive value storage, utilizing it exclusively to farm yield at the newly adjusted cost basis.

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