The Crillon Court - 779 Riverside Drive
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
Type: Prewar Resale Condominium.
Vintage: Built 1926, Converted ~2008.
Scale: 92 Units across 6 Floors.
Primary Category Classification: Hybrid (Core/Defensive with strong Yield traits).
Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a building that successfully compounded capital value from its late-2000s baseline into the 2018–2022 cycle, moving from ~$450/SF to structural highs of ~$800+/SF. It boasts excellent secondary liquidity for its dominant 1-bedroom units but struggles profoundly with larger 3-bedroom family layouts. Current pricing has hit a structural plateau in 2024–2026 (retreating to the $660–$720/SF range), perfectly mirroring the macro NYXRCSA benchmark, which stalled out at a 332–333 index value in late 2025 before settling at 330.5 in early 2026.
2. BUILDING UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
Based on the 108 transaction-weighted sales recorded:
1-Bedroom (1 Bath): 65 sales (60.1% of sales activity).
2-Bedroom (1 to 2 Baths): 17 sales (15.7% of sales activity).
3-Bedroom (2 Baths): 16 sales (14.8% of sales activity).
Analysis: The building is overwhelmingly dominated by 1-bedroom layouts. This heavy concentration creates a highly standardized internal market that guarantees deep liquidity for investors and entry-level buyers, but fundamentally restricts upward mobility for end-users seeking family-sized units.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
A. Liquidity: The secondary market pacing is highly bifurcated by size. The dominant 1-bedroom inventory clears efficiently at a median of roughly 43-53 Days on Market (DOM). In contrast, the larger 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom units experience significant friction, frequently suffering extreme delays (e.g., Unit C42 at 185 DOM, Unit A43 at 203 DOM, Unit C32 at 352 DOM).
B. Price Strength: High-floor C and B lines established the building's peak structural ceilings during the 2018–2022 era, reliably commanding $780 to $838 PPSF (e.g., Unit C52 at $838/SF, Unit B63 at $798/SF).
C. Appreciation: Core 1-bedroom layouts consistently compounded capital from their ~$450–$550/SF sponsor baselines up to the ~$750–$800/SF mark by the peak cycle.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
2008–2010 (Sponsor/Early Baseline): Pricing clustered between $370 and $550 PPSF.
2014–2016 (Mid-Cycle Growth): Steady upward mobility established a $600–$800 PPSF floor.
2018–2022 (Peak Cycle Compounding): Robust growth pushing values to $750–$838 PPSF.
2023–2026 (Macro Plateau): Pricing has retreated slightly and flatlined into the $660–$720 PPSF range (e.g., Unit B35 at $719/SF, Unit B30 at $663/SF). This stagnation tracks identically with the macro NYXRCSA index, which plateaued through 2025 and 2026, confirming the aggressive compounding era has strictly paused.
Conclusion: Cyclical / Plateaued Compounding.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type:
Unit C31 (1 Bed / 1 Bath - Mar 2025): Achieved Rent: $3,200/month | DOM: 37 days.
Effective (DOM-adjusted) Annual Rent: $3,200 × (365 − 37) ÷ 365 = $2,875/month ($34,500 annually).
Unit C33 (3 Bed / 2 Bath - Apr 2024): Achieved Rent: $4,600/month | DOM: 111 days.
Effective (DOM-adjusted) Annual Rent: $4,600 × (365 − 111) ÷ 365 = $3,201/month ($38,412 annually).
Unit B15 (2 Bed / 1 Bath - Jan 2022): Achieved Rent: $2,700/month | DOM: 129 days.
Effective (DOM-adjusted) Annual Rent: $2,700 × (365 − 129) ÷ 365 = $1,745/month ($20,940 annually).
Conclusion: Income capture in this building is highly bifurcated. The 1-bedroom units rent consistently and effectively. However, the building experiences catastrophic vacancy bottlenecks on its 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom lines—with recorded rental DOMs of 111, 129, and 177 days. This unreliability severely disrupts annualized yield for larger units.
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
Liquidity Score: 65/100 (1-bedrooms move with excellent efficiency, but penalized by the severe 150+ DOM drag on larger family layouts).
Rent Capture Score: 70/100 (Solid top-line achieved rents for 1-beds, but heavily handicapped by chronic 100+ day vacancy leakages on multi-bedroom units destroying effective yield).
Appreciation Score: 75/100 (Proven history of strong capital compounding from the late-2000s, successfully lifting base values significantly before recently plateauing).
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: 70.25/100 [(65 × 0.35) + (70 × 0.30) + (75 × 0.35)].
Category Label: Hybrid.
Unit Mix Summary: Overwhelmingly concentrated in 1-Bedroom layouts (60%).
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)
Resale Appreciation Examples:
Unit A31 (1 Bed/1 Bath, 754 SF): Bought Dec 2009 at $305,000 ($374 PPSF) → Resold Apr 2016 at $595,000 ($789 PPSF). (+95.0% over 6.3 years; CAGR ~11%). Drivers 1 (Market regime timing) & 5 (Sponsor price normalization).
Unit C50 (1 Bed/1 Bath, 649 SF): Bought Jun 2013 at $326,000 ($493 PPSF) → Resold Jul 2023 at $450,000 ($693 PPSF). (+38.0% over 10.1 years; CAGR ~3.2%). Driver 1 (Market regime timing).
Unit C42 (2 Bed/1 Bath, 1049 SF): Bought Jul 2014 at $625,000 ($595 PPSF) → Resold Feb 2020 at $800,000 ($762 PPSF). (+28.0% over 5.6 years; CAGR ~4.5%). Driver 1 (Market regime timing).
Unit B55 (1 Bed/1 Bath, 814 SF): Bought Nov 2008 at $480,000 ($636 PPSF) → Resold Apr 2022 at $590,000. (+22.9% absolute return over 13.5 years). Driver 1 (Market regime timing).
Resale Depreciation / Flatline Examples:
Unit C42 Repeat (2 Bed/1 Bath, 1049 SF): Bought Feb 2020 at $800,000 ($762 PPSF) → Resold Jan 2024 at $755,000 ($719 PPSF). (-5.6% absolute loss over 4 years). Driver 1 (Market regime timing - trapped in macro plateau).
Unit A12 (3 Bed/2 Bath, 1799 SF): Bought Aug 2017 at $1,325,000 ($736 PPSF) → Resold Aug 2020 at $970,400 ($566 PPSF). (-26.7% over 3 years). Drivers 1 (Market regime timing) & 4 (Unit size imbalance).
Unit B30 (1 Bed/1 Bath, 649 SF): Bought Sep 2008 at $332,310 ($512 PPSF) → Resold Jun 2016 at $239,304 ($368 PPSF). (-28.0% over 7.8 years). Drivers 1 (Market regime timing) & 5 (Sponsor price normalization).
Unit B64 (3 Bed/2 Bath, 1714 SF): Bought Oct 2013 at $953,623 ($530 PPSF) → Resold Aug 2020 at $970,400 ($566 PPSF). (+1.7% over 6.8 years, functionally flat). Driver 1 (Market regime timing).
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Large Unit Illiquidity: 3-bedroom units suffer chronic structural illiquidity. Recorded secondary wait times of 203 days (A43) and an agonizing 352 days (C32) mean capital is heavily trapped upon exit for families.
Catastrophic Rental Leakage: The 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom rental market within this building is highly unpredictable. Multiple units have sat empty for 3 to 6 months (e.g., C33 at 111 DOM, B15 at 129 DOM, C15 at 177 DOM). Landlords face massive vacancy risk on larger formats.
Macro Headwinds: Building-wide PPSF growth has officially hit a ceiling. Buyers purchasing today around ~$700/SF are entering at a market plateau corroborated directly by the stagnant NYXRCSA benchmark in 2025/2026.
Recommendation: Do not buy 2-bedroom or 3-bedroom units for short-term rental yield. The excessive vacancy risk on the larger units frequently destroys capitalization rates, making it an unreliable pure-yield play.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The building is heavily saturated with 1-bedroom layouts (60% of inventory), which act as the absolute engines of the asset, providing robust liquidity (43–53 DOM) and highly efficient rental income. Conversely, the 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom units act as a severe anchor on the building, causing deep market friction with sales regularly languishing for 180 to 350+ days, and rental units frequently sitting vacant for 100 to 170+ days. Opportunity here lies strictly in utilizing the 1-bedroom units for defensive, long-term rent capture; acute capital and yield risk awaits any buyer relying on the larger family-sized layouts.
