The Contempora (111 Third Avenue)
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
Building Type: Postwar Resale Condop (Built 1965)
Scale: 17 Floors, ~160–170 Units (Transaction weighted)
Classification: Yield-Oriented (Secondary: Core/Defensive)
Justification: Post-sponsor (resale) data identifies 111 Third Avenue as a high-velocity turnover machine with exceptional cap rate potential but stagnant capital appreciation. While the NYXRCSA Index climbed significantly from 2016 to 2025 (Index ~270 → ~330), resale pricing at The Contempora has largely moved sideways. However, liquidity is elite; units consistently clear in under 30 days, and rental yields for recent buyers are projected in the 7–8% range.
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
Data Basis: Transaction-weighted inventory (N=171 records).
Composition:
Studios: ~35% of activity. High velocity rentals.
1-Beds: ~50% of activity. The core liquidity driver.
2-Beds / 3-Beds: ~15% of activity. Rare inventory; often combined units (e.g., Line BC).
Impact: The building is heavily weighted toward small starter units. This concentration creates a "commoditized" market within the building, ensuring extremely high liquidity (fungible assets) but limiting price breakouts, as comparable units are always cycling through the market.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
Sponsor normalization applied: Excluded 2004–2006 "COM" and bulk sales from liquidity metrics to isolate true market friction.
A. Liquidity (Speed)
Rank 1 (Fastest): Studio/1-Bed Lines (F, J, A).
Rank 2 (Slowest): Combined/Large Units (BC, K).
Recent Shift (2024–2025): Hyper-Liquid.
Unit 4A (1-Bed): 19 Days (Jun 2025)
Unit 14F (Studio): 18 Days (May 2025)
Unit 11J (1-Bed): 21 Days (May 2025)
Unit 3H (1-Bed): 27 Days (Jul 2024)
Conclusion: Inventory clears almost instantly. This is rare for 1960s product.
B. Appreciation (Durability)
Small Units (Studios/1-Beds): Plateauing.
Prices hit a ceiling around 2015–2016 and have struggled to break it significantly.
Example: Unit 17G sold for $660k in 2016 and $660k in 2022.
Large Units: Volatile.
Unit 9BC (3-Bed) sold for $1.615M in 2017 and $1.585M (as 9K/partially reconfigured) in 2022. Value retention is weaker on the high end.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
Growth Phase (2010–2015): Rapid recovery. PPSF moved from ~$850 to ~$1,200+.
Stagnation Phase (2016–2025):
2016 Median PPSF: ~$1,250–1,350 (e.g., Unit 12B @ $1,336).
2021 Median PPSF: ~$1,200 (e.g., Unit 2G @ $1,200).
2024/2025 Sales: Trading flat or slightly down on a PPSF basis ($1,100–1,200 range implied by absolute prices).
Trend: Flat / Defensive. The building acts as a store of value rather than a growth vehicle. It has underperformed the NYXRCSA benchmark's recent 2024–2025 surge.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
A. Rent Capture by Line (2024–2025 Data)
Studios: Extremely efficient.
Unit 9F (Jun 2025): $3,750. DOM: 19 Days.
Unit 2F (Jun 2025): $3,500. DOM: 16 Days.
1-Beds: Strong premiums.
Unit 6G (Jun 2025): $5,350. DOM: 22 Days.
Unit 8B (May 2025): $4,200 ($91 PPSF). DOM: 12 Days.
B. Rent Appreciation
Unit 9F (Studio) Case Study:
2015 Rent: $2,700
2022 Rent: $3,350
2025 Rent: $3,750
CAGR: ~3.3% consistent annual growth over a decade.
Conclusion: Unlike sales prices (which flattened), rents have compounded steadily.
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
(Scores 0–100 based on Normalized Data)
A. Liquidity Score: 90/100
Strength: Median resale DOM for 2024–2025 is <25 days.
Strength: High transaction volume suggests a very deep buyer pool.
B. Rent Capture Score: 88/100
Strength: Gross Yields are elite. (e.g., Studio 14F sold for $520k in 2025; similar studios rent for $3,600+. Gross Yield ~8.3%).
Strength: Rapid absorption (Rental DOM ~15 days).
C. Appreciation Score: 35/100
Penalty: Flat pricing from 2016 to 2025.
Penalty: Underperformance against NYXRCSA Index (Index rose, building stalled).
Support: No catastrophic crashes, just inflation-adjusted erosion.
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: 70 (Liquidity 90 × 0.35) + (Rent 88 × 0.30) + (Appreciation 35 × 0.35)
Classification: Yield-Oriented
Definition: A high-turnover, high-income asset. Investors should buy here for the 7–8% cap rates and ease of exit (liquidity), not for equity multiplication.
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Resale Appreciation (Long-Term / Market Regime):
Unit 4A (1-Bed):
Bought Oct 2005: $430,560
Sold Jun 2025: $690,000
Result: +60% over 20 years. (CAGR ~2.4%).
Driver: Market Regime Timing (Bought pre-peak 2007).
Unit 8H (1-Bed):
Bought Mar 2010: $545,000
Sold Feb 2022: $715,000
Result: +31% over 12 years.
Driver: Market Regime Timing (Post-GFC recovery).
Unit 13H (1-Bed):
Bought Sep 2011: $555,000
Sold Dec 2020: $675,000
Result: +21% over 9 years.
Driver: Market Regime Timing.
Resale Stagnation / Depreciation (The "Leakage"):
Unit 17G (Studio):
Bought Aug 2016: $660,000
Sold Feb 2022: $660,000
Result: 0% Gain (Nominal) over 6 years. Real loss due to inflation/costs.
Driver: Market Regime Timing (2016 was a local peak).
Unit 7B (1-Bed):
Bought Mar 2016: $615,000
Sold Feb 2022: $660,000
Result: +7% over 6 years (CAGR ~1%).
Driver: Line-level premium persistence (weak).
Unit 9BC vs 9K (Likely reconfiguration/proxy):
9BC Sold Jul 2017: $1,615,000
9K Sold Nov 2022: $1,585,000
Result: -1.8% Loss over 5 years.
Driver: Unit size / unit mix imbalance (Large units suffer liquidity/price drag here).
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Risk: Inflation Erosion. Buying in 2025 means you are likely buying an asset that will trade for the same price in 2030, while inflation eats the real value. The Appreciation Score of 35 confirms this is not a growth vehicle.
Red Flag: Ceiling on 1-Beds. 1-Bedroom units seem to hit a hard resistance level around $750k-$800k. Unit 11J hit $800k in 2025, but most trade in the $680k–$740k band, same as they did in 2017.
Opportunity: The rental market is disconnected from the sales market. Rents are hitting all-time highs ($5,350 for a 1-Bed) while sales prices lag. This creates a Cap Rate Opportunity.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Contempora (111 Third Avenue) is a quintessential Yield-Oriented asset that offers exceptional liquidity and income potential but minimal capital appreciation. Post-sponsor analysis reveals that while units fly off the market in under 25 days (elite liquidity), sale prices have effectively flatlined since 2016, underperforming the NYXRCSA benchmark significantly. Conversely, rent capture is robust, with studios and 1-beds generating estimated gross yields of 7–8% in the 2025 market. This building is a "buy-to-rent" stronghold; buying for short-term resale profit is ill-advised due to the demonstrated price ceiling.
DISCLOSURES & NORMALIZATION
Sponsor Normalization:
2004–2006 sales labeled "COM" or bulk entries were treated as baseline/sponsor activity and excluded from liquidity calculations to prevent skewing DOM averages.
They were used, however, to establish the initial price floor for appreciation analysis.
Data Note: "Line 9BC" and "Line 9K" were treated as proxy comparisons for large unit performance based on square footage and bed/bath count similarities in the absence of floorplans.