Circa Central Park - 285 West 110 Street

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: New Development Condo (Built 2018).

• Scale: 12 Floors, 50 Units.

• Primary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a building undergoing a severe, structural price-discovery and normalization phase. Initial sponsor sales cleared at heavily elevated pricing, frequently achieving $1,600–$2,600+/SF depending on the stack. However, the mature resale market (2021–2026) has demonstrated massive friction, with depreciation pulling 3BR and 4BR valuations down to a $1,250–$1,500/SF baseline. This severe mean-reversion entirely decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic highs of 330–333 in the late 2025 and early 2026 periods. With capital preservation failing on the secondary market, the building functions primarily as a Yield-Oriented asset via its highly efficient nominal rent capture.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION Based on historic sales data and transaction weighting across 49 recorded sales:

• Studio / 1BR: ~24% of sales volume (12 transactions).

• 2BR: ~28% of sales volume (14 transactions).

• 3BR: ~28% of sales volume (14 transactions).

• 4BR+: ~18% of sales volume (9 transactions).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is extraordinarily top-heavy, highly concentrated in large family-sized footprints, with nearly 50% of trades being 3BR or larger. The lack of deep secondary demand for luxury large-format units creates a structural unit size imbalance. While 1BRs and smaller 2BRs process rentals relatively efficiently, the massive 3BR+ layouts face catastrophic resale DOM drag (e.g., 287 to 630+ days) when attempting to offload.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: Resale liquidity is structurally impaired across the board. Certain highly discounted units clear in 23 to 71 days (e.g., 10A, 5B, 2E), but this velocity relies heavily on capitulation pricing.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: The building's core large units sit for chronic durations. Unit 9A (4BR) sat for 1,297 days, 7B (3BR) for 630 days, 4A (3BR) for 355 days, and 6D (3BR) for 322 days.

B. Price Strength

• Initial sponsor premium stacks have collapsed. 3BR and 4BR units that previously commanded $2,100–$2,400/SF have violently corrected to a baseline of roughly $1,250–$1,750/SF today.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are universally mean-reverting. The building exhibits negative structural appreciation. Value destruction is consistent across early resale data on premium lines, driven purely by the deflation of the sponsor's initial pricing.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2017–2019 (Sponsor Peak): Massive initial volume clearing at $1,550–$2,600/SF.

• 2020–2022 (Initial Normalization): Resales face severe DOM friction; values begin to slip to $1,600–$1,800/SF.

• 2024–2026 (Drawdown / Current Baseline): A drastic secondary reset, settling heavily downward to $1,250–$1,550/SF. Conclusion: Depreciating / Mean-Reverting. Value is currently adjusting downward from original sponsor inflation, entirely failing to track the NYXRCSA macro growth trend.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365

• Example 1 (High Efficiency): Unit 6A (3BR). Achieved $8,100/mo. DOM 11. Effective Rent = $8,100 × (365 - 11) ÷ 365 = $7,855/mo.

• Example 2 (Moderate Leakage): Unit 7A (3BR). Achieved $9,750/mo. DOM 66. Effective Rent = $9,750 × (365 - 66) ÷ 365 = $7,986/mo.

• Example 3 (Severe Leakage): Unit 3H (3BR). Achieved $11,500/mo. DOM 201. Effective Rent = $11,500 × (365 - 201) ÷ 365 = $6,331/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent per SF is extremely strong for the submarket, routinely commanding $60 to $113/SF. However, rental efficiency is highly volatile due to unit size imbalances; massive units frequently sit for 60 to 200+ days, creating severe localized cash flow leakage.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 38

  • Speed: Poor. Normalized resale DOM routinely breaches 150 to 350+ days on large footprints.

  • Consistency: Low. Extreme friction and multi-year inventory clearance issues on 4BR+ units.

• Rent Capture Score: 76

  • Efficiency: Strong ($60–$113/SF).

  • Absorption: Volatile. Exceptional nominal pricing partially offset by destructive DOM spikes on 3BR layouts.

• Appreciation Score: 10

  • Durability: Failing. Widespread, catastrophic equity loss on all recorded post-sponsor large-format trades compared to their 2017-2018 baselines.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (38 × 0.35) + (76 × 0.30) + (10 × 0.35) = 39.60 Category Assignment: Yield-Oriented. The asset completely fails defensive or appreciation criteria due to deep illiquidity and structural baseline destruction, functioning purely as a high-yield rental vehicle.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Depreciation (Structural Baseline Shifts): (Note: No true structural appreciation examples exist in the dataset due to uniform post-sponsor price deflation. The following pairs compare original sponsor clearing prices against mature resale attempts within equivalent lines/layouts to map the capital decay).

1. 3BR Line Normalization (Deep Friction): Unit 7A Sponsor Trade (Oct 2017 at $2,048/SF) vs Unit 6D Resale (Sep 2024 at $1,418/SF with 322 DOM). -30% baseline shift. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

2. 3BR Line Normalization: Unit 4C Sponsor Trade (Aug 2017 at $2,222/SF) vs Unit 6B Resale (Mar 2026 at $1,259/SF with 98 DOM). -43% baseline shift. Driver: Sponsor price normalization.

3. 3BR Line Normalization (Friction): Unit 5E Sponsor Trade (Jul 2018 at $2,278/SF) vs Unit 5A Resale (May 2022 at $1,768/SF with 287 DOM). -22% baseline shift. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 7F Sponsor Trade (Aug 2017 at $1,549/SF) vs Unit 4B Resale (Dec 2024 at $1,475/SF with 203 DOM). -4% baseline shift. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Catastrophic Capital Destruction: Buyers who funded the 2017–2019 sponsor peak at $2,000+/SF have suffered violent depreciation upon exit, actively defying the NYXRCSA macro growth index.

• Massive Illiquidity on Large Units: The building's dense 3BR and 4BR core routinely sits for 150 to 600+ days on the resale market, paralyzing capital mobility.

• Avoid: Do not buy 3BR, 4BR, or 5BR units anticipating a liquid exit or capital preservation. The friction costs of a 300+ day DOM and aggressive structural baseline resets guarantee wealth destruction on short holds.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Circa Central Park (285 West 110 Street) is a top-heavy, Yield-Oriented new development currently trapped in a punishing sponsor price normalization phase. Early buyers who funded the 2017–2019 closings at heavy premiums ($1,600–$2,600/SF) have watched resale values structurally decay down to a $1,250–$1,550/SF baseline, thoroughly decoupling from the all-time highs of the broader NYXRCSA benchmark. Furthermore, secondary market liquidity is deeply impaired by a unit-mix imbalance, with massive 3BR and 4BR layouts frequently enduring 200 to 600+ days on market before finding capitulation bids. Despite these capital preservation failures, the building's underlying units command top-tier nominal rental rates ($60-$113/SF), allowing it to function effectively as a high-income vehicle for those holding smaller footprints or purchasing large layouts at heavily discounted resale bases.

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