Arcadia (408 East 79 Street)

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

Arcadia (408 East 79 Street) is a Postwar Resale Condo (Built 2005) located in the Upper East Side market. Standing 21 floors tall with 53 units, it functions as a boutique full-service building with amenity-rich offerings including a doorman and gym.

Based on transaction history and the current NYXRCSA benchmark of 331.14 (Oct 2025), the building is classified as Yield-Oriented (Secondary: Distressed/Correction).

This classification is justified by a catastrophic structural decoupling from broader market appreciation. While the NYXRCSA index reached an all-time high of 331.14 in late 2025, Arcadia has exhibited nominal capital destruction over nearly 20-year holding periods. The definitive signal is Unit 19A, which sold in Mar 2006 (Sponsor) for $2.72M and resold in Jul 2025 for $2.34M—a realized -14.1% nominal loss despite a 19-year hold. Similarly, Unit 5D sold for $1.195M in 2016 and resold for $999k in 2024 (-16.4% loss). Listing sources explicitly note the building "Underperforms Upper East Side by 17.9%". Value is currently derived from rental yields (~$60–$70 PPSF) rather than equity compounding.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on transaction-weighted data from 125 recorded sales, the inventory is balanced but skewed toward 2- and 3-bedroom residences:

• 1BR: ~18% of activity (22 sales). Sizes 800–815 sqft.

• 2BR: ~40% of activity (51 sales). High Liquidity Segment. Sizes 1,424–1,685 sqft.

• 3BR: ~30% of activity (39 sales). Dominant Value Segment. Sizes 1,858–1,961 sqft.

• 4BR+: ~4% of activity (5 sales). Sizes 3,100+ sqft.

Influence on Behavior: The building behaves like a commodity asset. The high concentration of standardized 2BR and 3BR units (Lines A, B) allows for precise price discovery, which currently works against sellers. The 3BR units (Line B) have shown significant volatility, failing to hold the $3M price point established in 2017.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

Note: Pursuant to the Sponsor Normalization Rule, sales from 2005–2007 marked "No Listing" or with DOM ≤ 30 (e.g., 4A, 14C, 7A, 6D, 4B, 16B, 6A, 3B, 17A, 19A, 8A) are treated as Sponsor/Conversion Baseline and excluded from resale liquidity metrics.

A. Liquidity

• Fastest: Unit 8A sold in 11 days (2015). Unit 6C sold in 33 days (2016). Unit 3A sold in 32 days (2017).

• Slowest: Unit 19A took 420 days (2018). Unit 19A took 378 days (2025). Unit 5D took 316 days (2024). Unit 12A took 323 days (2017).

• Median Resale DOM: The building-wide median is reported as 103 days. However, recent distressed sales (19A, 5D) show extreme friction (300+ days), indicating a "liquidity trap" for units priced near historical basis.

B. Price Strength

• Ceiling (Peak): Pricing power peaked in 2016–2017. Unit 9B sold for $1,829 PPSF ($3.4M) in 2017. Unit 16A sold for $1,760 PPSF ($3.3M) in 2023.

• Baseline (Current): The 2024–2025 baseline has reset significantly lower.

  • Unit 5D (1BR): $1,233 PPSF (2024).

  • Unit 19A (2BR): $1,388 PPSF (2025).

  • Unit 8B (3BR): $1,453 PPSF (2025).

• Regression: Current trades are clearing ~20–25% below the building's 2017 nominal PPSF peaks.

C. Appreciation

• Negative Trend: Unit 8B declined from $2.95M (2014) to $2.70M (2025).

• Capital Destruction: Unit 19A lost -$380k nominally between 2006 and 2025.

• Cyclicality: Unit 3A surged to $2.275M in 2017, then crashed to $1.825M in 2022.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

The building is in a Structural Regression phase.

• Sponsor Baseline (2005–2006): Sales cleared $1,100–$1,600 PPSF (19A at $1,616 PPSF was an outlier high).

• Cycle Peak (2014–2017): Sales frequently cleared $1,500–$1,800 PPSF (9B, 18B, 3A).

• Correction (2020–2023): Prices compressed to $1,150–$1,250 PPSF (10A, 11A, 3B).

• Current (2024–2025): Recent sales cleared at $1,233–$1,459 PPSF.

• Trend: Bearish. Despite the NYXRCSA index rising to 331.14 (All-Time High), Arcadia units are trading well below their 2006 and 2017 nominal peaks.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

Effective Annual Rent Calculation: (Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365).

A. Rent Capture

• Unit 6C (2023):

  • Rent: $7,995 ($65 PPSF).

  • DOM: 14 days.

  • Effective Rent: ~$7,688/mo. Status: Efficient.

• Unit 5A (2024):

  • Rent: $8,500 ($69 PPSF).

  • DOM: 71 days.

  • Effective Rent: ~$6,846/mo. Status: Friction.

• Unit 8A (2021):

  • Rent: $6,495 ($54 PPSF).

  • DOM: 113 days.

  • Effective Rent: ~$4,483/mo. Status: High Leakage.

B. Rent Appreciation

• Growth: Unit 5A rented for $7,500 in 2018 and $8,500 in 2024. +13.3% Growth over 6 years (~2.1% CAGR), lagging inflation.

• Deflation: Unit 14B rented for $11,500 in 2014/2015 and dropped to $10,500 in 2018. -8.7% Nominal Decline.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 40/100 (Recent major sales [19A, 5D] took 300+ days. "Liquidity trap" behavior for units seeking historical basis. High median DOM of 103 days).

• Rent Capture Score: 55/100 (Decent nominal PPSF [$60–$69], but documented rent deflation on large units [14B] and slow growth [5A] penalize the score).

• Appreciation Score: 10/100 (Confirmed nominal losses on Unit 19A [-14% over 19 years] and Unit 8B [-8% over 11 years]. Zero/Negative Beta vs NYXRCSA).

• Composite Score: 34.0/100.

7. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES

Resale Depreciation (Capital Destruction):

• Unit 19A (2BR / 1,685 sqft):

  • Sold Mar 2006 (Sponsor): $2,724,226 ($1,616 PPSF).

  • Sold Jul 2025: $2,340,000 ($1,388 PPSF).

  • Result: -14.1% Nominal Loss ($384k) over 19.3 years. Driver: 5 (Sponsor Normalization) & 1 (Market Regime).

Resale Depreciation (Cyclical Correction):

• Unit 5D (1BR / 810 sqft):

  • Sold Feb 2016: $1,195,000 ($1,475 PPSF).

  • Sold Jul 2024: $999,000 ($1,233 PPSF).

  • Result: -16.4% Nominal Loss over 8.4 years. Driver: 1.

Resale Depreciation (Stagnation):

• Unit 8B (3BR / 1,858 sqft):

  • Sold May 2014: $2,950,000 ($1,587 PPSF).

  • Sold Oct 2025: $2,700,000 ($1,453 PPSF).

  • Result: -8.5% Nominal Loss over 11.4 years. Driver: 1.

Resale Volatility (Cycle Timing):

• Unit 3A (2BR / 1,465 sqft):

  • Sold Mar 2017: $2,275,000 ($1,552 PPSF).

  • Sold Nov 2022: $1,825,000 ($1,245 PPSF).

  • Result: -19.8% Nominal Loss over 5.7 years. Driver: 1.

8. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Wealth Trap: Buying at 2006 sponsor prices (Unit 19A) or 2016 resale prices (Unit 5D) resulted in double-digit percentage losses by 2024/2025.

• Extreme Liquidity Risk: Sellers of units with embedded losses faced market times of 316 to 378 days to find a buyer.

• Underperformance: Explicitly flagged as "Underperforming Upper East Side by 17.9%".

9. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Arcadia (408 East 79 Street) is a Yield-Oriented condo that currently functions as a wealth trap for equity investors. Despite the NYXRCSA index hitting an all-time high of 331.14 in 2025, resale values in this building have structurally regressed. Unit 19A realized a 14% nominal loss after a 19-year hold ($2.72M $\to$ $2.34M), and Unit 5D lost 16% from its 2016 peak. While rental yields are functional (~$65–$69 PPSF), large unit rents have shown deflationary trends (-8.7% on Unit 14B). Investors should view this as a distressed asset, avoiding entry above $1,250 PPSF to mitigate the proven risk of capital erosion.

B³ SCORECARD

• Liquidity Score: 40

• Rent Capture Score: 55

• Appreciation Score: 10

• Composite Score: 34.0

• Category: Yield-Oriented (Distressed/Correction)

• Unit Mix: 40% 2BR / 30% 3BR / 18% 1BR [Transaction Weighted]

• Sponsor Normalization: Sales from 2005–2007 with "No Listing" or DOM $\le$ 30 reclassified as Sponsor/Conversion Baseline (approx. 20 transactions).