The Adeline - 23 West 116 Street

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: New Development Condo (Built 2014).

• Scale: 12 Floors, 83 Units.

• Primary Category: Cyclical.

• Secondary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a top-heavy building highly reliant on macroeconomic market cycles rather than durable structural compounding. Early sponsor sales cleared across heavily discounted baselines ($700–$1,050/SF) in 2014–2015. The asset matured into a mid-cycle peak between 2018 and 2021, frequently achieving euphoric pricing of $1,200–$1,400+/SF. However, the mature resale market (2023–2025) demonstrates distinct mean-reversion, with values cooling back to an $1,000–$1,160/SF baseline. This recent drawdown decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic all-time highs of 330–332 in late 2025 and early 2026. Because larger layouts suffer from high DOM friction on both sales and rentals, the building currently functions best as a cyclical timing play or a yielding asset on smaller footprints.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on summary historic sales data across 119 explicitly categorized transactions:

• 1BR: ~21% of sales volume (25 transactions).

• 2BR: ~45% of sales volume (53 transactions).

• 3BR: ~30% of sales volume (36 transactions).

• 4BR+: ~4% of sales volume (5 transactions).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is extremely top-heavy, highly anchored by 2BR and 3BR units which constitute roughly 75% of trading volume. This lack of highly liquid, smaller footprints creates a severe unit size imbalance. While the small 1BR segment acts as the building's liquidity engine (clearing sales at a median of 27 days), the dominant 2BR and 3BR inventory dictates the building's true drag, causing standard lines to sit for 112 to 117 days before offloading, and frequently suffering volatile vacancy intervals on the rental market.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: 1BR lines clear the market with high efficiency, transacting in a median of 27 days.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: The building's core 2BR and 3BR layouts sit for chronic durations. The median 2BR sits for 117 days, while 3BRs sit for 112 days. Recent outliers include Unit 8B at 297 days, 8J at 261 days, 5D at 245 days, and 8H at 218 days.

B. Price Strength

• Mid-cycle premium stacks have broken down. 2BR and 3BR units that successfully commanded $1,250–$1,400/SF during the peak market have corrected to a volatile baseline roughly settling between $1,000–$1,160/SF today.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are deeply cyclical. Holders from the 2014–2015 sponsor baseline realized strong initial compounding. Conversely, buyers who entered during the 2018–2021 mid-cycle peak exhibit negative compounding and widespread equity loss upon exit.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2014–2015 (Sponsor Clearance): Initial clearance volume clearing at $700–$1,050/SF.

• 2016–2017 (Growth Phase): Rapid maturation moving into the $1,150–$1,250/SF bracket.

• 2018–2021 (Mid-Cycle Peak): The asset achieves maximum pricing power, averaging $1,200–$1,400/SF.

• 2023–2025 (Drawdown / Normalization): A distinct cyclical reset, declining and settling between $1,000–$1,160/SF. Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. Value is actively adjusting downward from the peak, completely failing to track the steady upward macro growth proven by the NYXRCSA index moving past 330 from 2024 to 2026.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365.

• Example 1 (High Efficiency): Unit 5F (1BR). Achieved $3,200/mo. DOM 10. Effective Rent = $3,200 × (365 - 10) ÷ 365 = $3,112/mo.

• Example 2 (Moderate Leakage): Unit 5A (2BR). Achieved $4,700/mo. DOM 50. Effective Rent = $4,700 × (365 - 50) ÷ 365 = $4,056/mo.

• Example 3 (Severe Leakage): Unit 9C (2BR). Achieved $5,750/mo. DOM 125. Effective Rent = $5,750 × (365 - 125) ÷ 365 = $3,780/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent per SF is robust, typically generating $45 to $60/SF depending on the layout. However, true rent capture is extremely volatile across larger unit sizes. While 1BRs absorb tenants rapidly, 2BR and 3BR rentals suffer from catastrophic localized DOM spikes (e.g., 106 days, 125 days, 154 days) creating devastating cash flow leakage that destroys realized annual yields.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 45

  • Speed: Poor. Normalized median resale DOM for the building's core 2BR and 3BR inventory is 112 to 117 days.

  • Consistency: Low. Extreme friction gap between 1BR clearances (27 days) and larger layouts.

• Rent Capture Score: 70

  • Efficiency: Strong nominal ($45–$60/SF).

  • Absorption: Volatile. Strong baseline rates are heavily compromised by extreme rental DOM outliers on larger footprints.

• Appreciation Score: 55

  • Durability: Cyclical. Widespread equity loss for late-stage peak buyers (2018-2021) partially offsets the strong baseline compounding experienced by the initial 2014-2015 cohort.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (45 × 0.35) + (70 × 0.30) + (55 × 0.35) = 56.00 Category Assignment: Cyclical / Yield-Oriented. The asset sits below the 65 threshold for a Hybrid classification. High friction costs in the sales market on large units prevent it from operating as a defensive core asset.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Appreciation (Early Cycle Timing):

1. Unit 3J (3BR): Dec 2014 Buy ($1,191,352) → Sep 2022 Sell ($1,400,000). Held 7.7 years. +17% change (CAGR ~2.1%). Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 4B (1BR): May 2016 Buy ($1,149/SF) → Oct 2019 Sell ($1,234/SF). Held 3.4 years. +7.3% change (CAGR ~2.0%). Driver: Market regime timing.

3. Unit 7C (2BR): Feb 2015 Buy ($1,050/SF) → Feb 2017 Sell ($1,255/SF). Held 2.0 years. +19% change (CAGR ~9.3%). Driver: Market regime timing.

4. Unit 2F (2BR): Mar 2015 Buy ($1,044/SF) → Nov 2016 Sell ($1,227/SF). Held 1.6 years. +17% change (CAGR ~10.4%). Driver: Market regime timing.

Resale Depreciation (Late Cycle / Structural Baseline Shifts): (Note: Because mid-cycle peak buyers struggle to exit without taking a loss, the following compares explicit buy/sell pairs and matching stack/layout original peak clearing prices against mature resale attempts to map capital decay).

1. Unit 7H (3BR): Dec 2014 Buy ($2,291,062) → Feb 2019 Sell ($1,841,000, $1,234/SF). Held 4.1 years. -19.6% change. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Market regime timing.

2. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 8B Peak Trade (Jun 2021 at $1,332/SF with 297 DOM) vs Unit 7E Resale (Nov 2024 at $1,001/SF with 175 DOM). -24% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

3. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 7C Peak Trade (Feb 2017 at $1,255/SF) vs Unit 5D Resale (Jul 2023 at $1,038/SF with 245 DOM). -17% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. 3BR Line Normalization: Unit 4F Peak Trade (Aug 2021 at $1,403/SF) vs Unit 6A Resale (Jun 2022 at $1,079/SF). -23% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Chronic Illiquidity on Large Layouts: The building's core inventory (2BR and 3BR units) routinely sits for massive intervals on the sales market (112 to 117 days median), representing deep secondary friction.

• Late-Stage Mean Reversion: Buyers who purchased during the 2018–2021 peak have seen their equity structurally decay, missing the recent macro upswings of the broader NYXRCSA index which hit ~333 in early 2026.

• Rental Leakage: Landlords holding larger footprints are heavily exposed to volatile vacancy; outsized 2BR/3BR rental DOM (106 to 154 days) destroys up to 30% of a year's gross yield.

• Avoid: Purchasing 2BR or 3BR units under the assumption of short-term appreciation or immediate liquidity. The cost of time completely neutralizes theoretical upside on these larger footprints.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Adeline (23 West 116 Street) operates as a highly top-heavy, Cyclical asset that generated solid wealth for early 2014–2015 sponsor buyers but aggressively punishes mid-cycle entrants today. The building's core operational rhythm is dragged down by its dominant 2BR and 3BR inventory, which severely lacks secondary market liquidity, resulting in massive 112 to 117-day medians for resale clears. Furthermore, pricing has drawn down from its $1,300+/SF peak to a $1,000–$1,160/SF plateau, totally untethered from the all-time highs of the NYXRCSA benchmark. Investors must treat this purely as a yield play on heavily discounted cost bases, strictly relying on the highly efficient 1BR units to process predictable rental income while avoiding the heavy friction costs associated with the larger layouts.

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