No. 305 On The Park - 305 West 150 Street

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Prewar Resale Condo (Built 1921, Converted 2015).

• Scale: 7 Floors, 84 Units.

• Primary Category: Cyclical.

• Secondary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a hyper-homogenous, deeply cyclical building that fails to defend capital outside of peak market regimes. Early sponsor sales cleared at baseline pricing of $620–$800/SF in 2015–2016. The asset rapidly matured into a mid-cycle peak between 2017 and 2019, achieving euphoric pricing of $850–$996/SF. However, the mature resale market in the 2020s demonstrates severe mean-reversion, with values steadily drawing back down to a $611–$790/SF baseline. This late-stage drawdown completely decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic all-time highs of 330–333 in late 2025 and early 2026. With increasing DOM friction on sales (frequently 100 to 233 days) but reliable functional rent capture, the building functions purely as a cyclical timing and yield play.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on historic sales data and transaction weighting across 99 explicitly categorized layout records:

• 1BR: ~98% of sales volume (96 transactions).

• 2BR+: ~2% of sales volume (3 transactions).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is a near-total monoculture, completely dominated by 1BR layouts (typically 560 to 600 SF). This extreme homogeneity creates an internal market echo chamber. Because there is no internal step-up trade flow (owners upgrading from 1BRs to 2BRs within the building), liquidity is 100% dependent on external macroeconomic demand for entry-level footprints. While this unit mix acts as an efficient, predictable engine for rental absorption, any localized dip in 1BR sales demand instantly traps the entire building in structural DOM drag.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: During brief windows of optimal pricing, specific 1BRs clear functionally (e.g., Unit 502 in 36 days, Unit 708 in 37 days).

• Slowest Resale Velocity: Mature resale velocity is actively slowing. The building's core 1BR inventory frequently sits for destructive durations in the current cycle, yielding a normalized median DOM of roughly 103 days. Recent late-cycle outliers demonstrate deep market resistance: Unit 511 sat for 233 days, and Unit 705 sat for 216 days.

B. Price Strength

• Mid-cycle premium stacks have entirely broken down. Units that successfully commanded $850–$996/SF during the 2017-2019 peak market (e.g., 501, 302, 704) have corrected to a volatile baseline, settling violently back between $611–$790/SF in 2024–2026 trailing clears.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are aggressively mean-reverting. Initial sponsor buyers captured transient equity if they exited at the 2018 peak. However, buyers holding into the 2020s, or those who purchased at the peak, exhibit negative compounding and widespread equity destruction upon exit today.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2015–2016 (Sponsor Clearance): Initial clearance volume heavily clustered at $620–$800/SF.

• 2017–2019 (Mid-Cycle Peak): Rapid expansion tracking macroeconomic momentum, peaking in the $850–$996/SF bracket.

• 2021–2026 (Drawdown / Normalization): A distinct cyclical reset, declining and settling between $611–$790/SF. Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. Value actively adjusted downward from the peak, failing entirely to track the upward macro growth proven by the NYXRCSA index reaching historic highs between 2025 and 2026.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365.

• Example 1 (High Efficiency): Unit 104 (1BR). Achieved $2,750/mo. DOM 8. Effective Rent = $2,750 × (365 - 8) ÷ 365 = $2,689/mo.

• Example 2 (Moderate Leakage): Unit 212 (1BR). Achieved $2,800/mo. DOM 32. Effective Rent = $2,800 × (365 - 32) ÷ 365 = $2,554/mo.

• Example 3 (Severe Leakage): Unit 703 (1BR). Achieved $2,200/mo. DOM 171. Effective Rent = $2,200 × (365 - 171) ÷ 365 = $1,169/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent per SF is highly functional, frequently yielding $50 to $56/SF across the homogeneous 1BR footprints in recent years. The building captures yield efficiently, maintaining a healthy median rental DOM of roughly 35 days, strongly offsetting the occasional localized DOM drag (e.g., 108 days, 114 days) caused by mispriced listings.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 55

  • Speed: Moderate to Poor. Normalized median resale DOM frequently sits at 103 days, with late-stage clears dragging past 200 days.

  • Consistency: Moderate. Near-identical inventory limits dispersion, but overall time-to-sell is uniformly slow.

• Rent Capture Score: 75

  • Efficiency: Strong nominal ($50–$56/SF).

  • Absorption: Good. Most 1BRs clear in roughly 35 days, minimizing catastrophic vacancy leakage.

• Appreciation Score: 35

  • Durability: Cyclical. Widespread equity loss for peak buyers (2018) and a failure to protect original 2015 baselines completely disconnects the asset from the NYXRCSA macro index.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (55 × 0.35) + (75 × 0.30) + (35 × 0.35) = 54.00. Category Assignment: Cyclical / Yield-Oriented. The asset sits well below the 65 threshold for a Hybrid classification. Poor defensive capital preservation entirely prevents it from operating as a core asset.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Appreciation (Early / Mid-Cycle Timing): (Note: True buy/sell pairs with gains are extremely rare post-2019. The following maps slight appreciation and line-level growth captured entirely during the run-up to the mid-cycle peak).

1. Unit 311 (1BR): Jul 2015 Buy ($375,000 at $644/SF) → Feb 2021 Sell ($410,000 at $684/SF with 47 DOM). Held 5.6 years. +6.2% change. Driver: Market regime timing.

2. 1BR Line Normalization (Peak Run-Up): Unit 511 Sponsor Trade (Jul 2015 at $644/SF) vs Unit 501 Peak Clear (Aug 2018 at $996/SF). +54% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

3. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 405 Sponsor Trade (Jul 2015 at $836/SF) vs Unit 403 Peak Clear (May 2018 at $873/SF). +4.4% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

4. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 706 Sponsor Trade (Jul 2015 at $629/SF) vs Unit 704 Peak Clear (Apr 2018 at $883/SF). +40% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

Resale Depreciation (Late Cycle / Structural Baseline Shifts):

1. Unit 501 (1BR): Aug 2018 Peak Buy ($524,398 at $996/SF) → Sep 2025 Sell ($415,000 at $788/SF with 92 DOM). Held 7.1 years. -20.8% change. Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 705 (1BR): Dec 2015 Buy ($510,000 at $874/SF) → Dec 2025 Sell ($399,000 at $676/SF with 216 DOM). Held 10.0 years. -22.6% change. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

3. Unit 511 (1BR): Jul 2015 Buy ($382,785 at $644/SF) → Apr 2026 Sell ($367,000 at $611/SF with 233 DOM). Held 10.8 years. -4.1% change. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. 1BR Line Normalization: Unit 302 Peak Trade (Aug 2018 at $850/SF) vs Unit 405 Resale (May 2021 at $728/SF with 168 DOM). -14.3% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Extreme Homogeneity Risk: Because 98% of the building is composed of identical 1BR units, any dip in localized 1BR entry-level demand traps the entire building in structural illiquidity, offering no larger unit safety nets to maintain building momentum.

• Severe Late-Stage Mean Reversion: Buyers who purchased during the 2017–2019 peak have seen their equity violently structurally decay, completely missing the recent macro upswings of the broader NYXRCSA index.

• Avoid: Purchasing premium 1BR units above $800/SF under the assumption of defensive capital preservation. The asset has clearly reverted to a lower baseline pricing plateau and punishes short-to-medium holds.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

305 On The Park (305 West 150th Street) is a deeply cyclical, Yield-Oriented condo conversion heavily penalized by late-cycle mean reversion and extreme layout homogeneity. Composed almost entirely of 1BR units, the building's operational rhythm acts as a pure barometer for submarket entry-level demand. While early 2015 buyers saw pricing swell to nearly $1,000/SF by 2018, the mature secondary market has violently corrected, dragging values back down to a $611–$790/SF plateau and pushing resale DOMs past 100 to 200+ days. Entirely untethered from the all-time highs of the NYXRCSA benchmark, the asset fails defensive capital metrics. Investors must treat this purely as a yield vehicle—capitalizing on the building's efficient $50–$56/SF rent capture—while strictly avoiding peak entry prices.

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