200 EAST 21ST STREET
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
Building Type: Recent Development Condo (Vintage 2018)
Scale: 67 Units / 20 Floors
Classification: Yield-Oriented (Distressed Liquidity)
Justification: 200 East 21st Street is a "High-Yield / Low-Velocity" asset. While the NYXRCSA benchmark has surged to all-time highs (Index ~330 in Nov 2025), resale pricing in this building has remained largely stagnant since its 2019 introduction. Long-term holders (2019–2025) are seeing low single-digit nominal gains (+1% to +10%) over 6 years, which translates to Real Losses after inflation and transaction costs. The building’s primary strength is Rent Capture, where it commands elite premiums ($96–$111/SF), while the resale market suffers from significant friction (Median DOM ~146 Days).
Sponsor Normalization Disclosure:
Transactions Reclassified: ~25 transactions from 2019–2020.
Context: The building began closing sales in 2019. Numerous sales (e.g., 15C, 15A, 16A, 12D, 5C) display "No Listing" or < 5 Days on Market.
Impact: These are classified as Sponsor-driven transactions to establish the baseline pricing ($2,000–$2,200 PPSF). They are excluded from resale liquidity metrics to prevent artificial inflation of velocity scores.
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
The inventory is transaction-weighted toward 2-Bedroom units, creating a specific profile that caters to end-users rather than pure transient investors.
1-Bedrooms: ~23 Sales recorded (~30% of activity).
2-Bedrooms: ~38 Sales recorded (~50% of activity). Dominant Inventory.
3-Bedrooms+: ~12 Sales recorded (~16% of activity).
Analysis:
Liquidity Stability: The concentration of 2-bedroom units exposes the building to higher price points where buyers are more discretionary. This results in longer marketing times compared to studio-heavy buildings.
Rent Capture: The efficient layouts allow for Rent/SF to exceed $100/SF, particularly in the 1-bedroom lines, driving yield.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
A. Liquidity (Speed) Resale liquidity is notably slow. The building lacks a "clearing mechanism" for quick exits.
1-Bedrooms: Median DOM ~106 Days.
Examples: Unit 6D (496 Days - Extreme Drag), Unit 5D (106 Days).
2-Bedrooms: Median DOM ~130–150 Days.
Examples: Unit 5C (278 Days), Unit 11A (146 Days), Unit 9D (120 Days).
3-Bedrooms+: Median DOM ~236+ Days.
Examples: Unit 17B (600 Days), Unit 14C (322 Days).
B. Price Strength & Dispersion
Building Median PPSF: ~$2,072.
Line Dispersion:
Consistency: Pricing is remarkably consistent across unit sizes. 1-Beds ($2,083 PPSF), 2-Beds ($2,060 PPSF), and 3-Beds ($2,211 PPSF) all trade within a tight band.
Sponsor Anchor: Resales struggle to break significantly above the Sponsor baseline of ~$2,100 PPSF.
C. Appreciation Stagnation / Capital Preservation.
Performance: Most lines are showing "flat" nominal performance over a 6-year hold.
Driver: Sponsor Price Normalization. The initial 2019 pricing fully captured the "New Dev Premium." Resales are merely holding that nominal value while inflation erodes real value.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
Phase 1 (Sponsor Peak): 2019–2020. Sales cleared $2,100–$2,400 PPSF.
Phase 2 (Dip): 2021. Some volatility (e.g., Unit 9D sold for $1,741 PPSF).
Phase 3 (Recovery/Flatline): 2022–2025. Pricing stabilized near $2,000–$2,100 PPSF.
Current State: Lagging. While the NYXRCSA index rose ~17% from 2019 to 2025, this building’s PPSF is largely unchanged.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
A. Rent Capture by Unit Type This is the building's standout metric. It competes with top-tier luxury rentals.
1-Bedrooms (approx. 713–772 SF):
Rent: ~$6,200–$6,700/mo.
Rent/SF: $96–$111/SF.
DOM: Fast (11–13 Days recent).
Capture: Elite.
2-Bedrooms (approx. 1,529 SF):
Rent: ~$12,250/mo.
Rent/SF: $96/SF.
DOM: Moderate (36 Days).
3-Bedrooms (approx. 1,823 SF):
Rent: ~$17,000/mo.
Rent/SF: $111/SF (Rare data point).
B. Effective Rent Calculation (Example)
Unit 3B (Nov 2025):
Rent: $6,700/mo.
DOM: 11 Days.
Effective Annual Rent = $(6,700 \times 12) \times (365 - 11) \div 365 = $77,973$.
Efficiency: 97%.
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
A. Liquidity Score: 40
Speed: Median resale DOM is ~146 Days. This is poor liquidity.
Depth: Outliers like Unit 17B (600 days) and Unit 6D (496 days) indicate a risk of getting "stuck."
B. Rent Capture Score: 92
Efficiency: Consistently hitting $100/SF is elite performance.
Absorption: Rental velocity (11–13 days for 1-beds) is far superior to sales velocity.
C. Appreciation Score: 40
Magnitude: Low single-digit nominal gains (+1% to +10%) over 6 years equate to real losses.
Durability: The asset preserves nominal capital but fails to grow it relative to the benchmark.
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score = 57
$(40 \times 0.35) + (92 \times 0.30) + (40 \times 0.35) = 14.0 + 27.6 + 14.0 = 55.6 \approx 56$
Category Assignment: Yield-Oriented (Distressed Liquidity)
Criteria: Rent Capture is elite (>90), but Liquidity is failing (<50). The building works best as a long-term income hold, not a trading asset.
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Resale Stagnation (Sponsor Premium Burn-Off)
Unit 6D (1-Bed):
Buy: $1,486,645 (Jul 2019)
Sell: $1,500,000 (Jul 2025)
Result: +0.9% Nominal Gain in 6 years. (Real Loss).
Driver: Sponsor Price Normalization.
Unit 8D (2-Bed):
Buy: $2,775,348 (Sep 2019)
Sell: $2,825,000 (May 2025)
Result: +1.8% Nominal Gain in 5.5 years.
Driver: Sponsor Price Normalization.
Unit 12C (3-Bed):
Buy: $3,800,255 (Dec 2019)
Sell: $4,200,000 (Dec 2025)
Result: +10.5% Nominal Gain in 6 years. (CAGR ~1.6%).
Context: Underperformed NYXRCSA inflation significantly.
Driver: Market Regime Timing.
Resale Volatility / Gain (Buying the Dip) 4. Unit 9D (2-Bed): Buy: $2,550,000 (Jan 2021) (Note: Bought below sponsor pricing) Sell: $2,990,000 (Oct 2024) Result: +17.2% Gain in 3.5 years. Driver: Market Regime Timing. (Bought low during COVID dip, sold high).
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
The "Liquidity Wall": The median resale time is nearly 5 months (146 days). Sellers must be prepared for extended marketing periods.
Real Return Drag: Buying at 2019 prices has resulted in 0% real growth by 2025. The "New Development" premium has burned off, leaving owners with a flat asset in an inflationary world.
Heavy 2-Bed Competition: With 50% of the building being 2-bedrooms, there is significant internal competition when selling, contributing to the 130+ day DOMs.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
200 East 21st Street is a premium Yield-Oriented asset that delivers elite rental performance but suffers from resale stagnation. While the building commands rents of $96–$111/SF with rapid absorption, the sales market is characterized by slow liquidity (Median DOM ~146 days) and flat nominal returns. Post-sponsor analysis reveals that buyers from 2019 are exiting in 2025 with nominal gains of only 1% to 10%, effectively taking a real loss when adjusted for inflation and costs. The building is an exceptional vehicle for cash flow but currently fails to capture the capital appreciation seen in the broader NYXRCSA benchmark.
B³ SCORECARD
Building: 200 East 21st Street
Category: Yield-Oriented (Distressed Liquidity)
Composite Score: 57
Pillar | Score | Key Metric |
Liquidity | 40 | Median Resale DOM ~146 Days (Slow) |
Rent Capture | 92 | Elite Rents ($96–$111/SF) |
Appreciation | 40 | Flat Nominal Growth (+1% to +10% over 6 yrs) |
Unit Mix Summary:
1-Bed: 30% of Sales (Fastest Rents)
2-Bed: 50% of Sales (Core Inventory, Slow Resale)