5th On The Park - 1485 Fifth Avenue

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Postwar Resale Condo (Built 2007).

• Scale: 30 Floors, 206 Units.

• Primary Category: Yield-Oriented.

• Secondary Category: Cyclical.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a building heavily reliant on market regimes rather than structural compounding. The building experienced rapid initial PPSF growth post-2009, peaking around 2016-2018 ($1,100–$1,300/SF), but has since mean-reverted ($850–$1,000/SF) in the 2024–2026 period. Notably, this building's pricing power has decoupled from the broader NYXRCSA benchmark, which reached all-time highs (330–332 index level) in late 2025 and early 2026. With a normalized median resale DOM of 85 days, the asset functions best as an income-capture vehicle (Yield-Oriented) rather than a defensive store of value.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION Based on transaction-weighted data across 230 recorded sales:

• Studio / 1BR: ~24% of sales volume (55 transactions).

• 2BR: ~39% of sales volume (91 transactions).

• 3BR: ~27% of sales volume (66 transactions).

• 4BR+: ~8% of sales volume (14 transactions).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is top-heavy, highly concentrated in 2BR and 3BR layouts. The 2BR units dictate the building's baseline liquidity, carrying a median 88 DOM, while 3BR lines suffer from a 97 to 159 median DOM depending on bath count. The 1BR and Studio segments trade faster (40-49 DOM), highlighting a unit mix imbalance where smaller footprints absorb efficiently but larger units face structural resistance.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: G lines (Studios) and A lines (smaller 2BRs) clear efficiently when priced appropriately, moving in 40–55 days during favorable regimes.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: E, F, and combined lines routinely sit for 100–300+ days (e.g., 16E at 146 days, 15A at 321 days, 13D at 299 days).

B. Price Strength

• Median resale PPSF settles near $850–$950 today. Premium stacks (high floor A and B lines) historically pushed $1,100–$1,200/SF, but those line-level premiums have failed to persist in the current macroeconomic environment.

C. Appreciation

• Lines mean-revert rather than compound. Sponsor baseline PPSF averaged $600–$750/SF. Mid-cycle (2015-2018) achieved strong CAGRs, but holders from 2017 to 2026 have generally experienced flat or negative compounding.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2009–2013 (Sponsor & Early Resale): Flat period ($600–$750/SF).

• 2014–2018 (Growth): Rapid expansion peak ($1,000–$1,250/SF).

• 2019–2026 (Drawdown / Cyclical): Pricing deterioration to a new baseline ($800–$1,050/SF). Conclusion: Cyclical. Value is purely regime-dependent. The building does not structurally compound wealth over time, failing to capture the sustained macro growth documented in the 2020-2026 NYXRCSA data.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365

• Example 1 (Severe Leakage): Unit 10E (2BR). Achieved $4,800/mo. DOM 129. Effective Rent = $4,800 × (365 - 129) ÷ 365 = $3,103/mo.

• Example 2 (High Efficiency): Unit 13J (2BR). Achieved $4,800/mo. DOM 8. Effective Rent = $4,800 × (365 - 8) ÷ 365 = $4,694/mo.

• Example 3 (Structural Drag): Unit 14A (4BR). Achieved $9,000/mo. DOM 185. Effective Rent = $9,000 × (365 - 185) ÷ 365 = $4,438/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent/SF averages $40–$60/SF. However, rent appreciation is highly volatile because rental DOM routinely spikes past 60 days on larger layouts. The building captures yield successfully only on smaller units or deeply discounted larger footprints.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 58

  • Speed: Poor. Median 85 days building-wide, 97+ days for 3BRs.

  • Consistency: Low. Extreme dispersion between 15-day and 300-day clearances.

  • Depth: Strong. 230 total trades prove the building functions as a market, just a slow one.

• Rent Capture Score: 68

  • Efficiency: Moderate ($40–$60/SF).

  • Absorption: Volatile. High income leakage due to high average rental DOM.

• Appreciation Score: 55

  • Durability: Poor. Widespread line-level depreciation post-2018 despite index-level macro growth.

  

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (58 × 0.35) + (68 × 0.30) + (55 × 0.35) = 59.95 Category Assignment: Yield-Oriented. The asset sits below the 65 threshold for a Hybrid classification.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED) (Note: Due to data variations in unit recording, PPSF is the primary metric tracking capital preservation).

Resale Appreciation:

1. Unit 14E (2BR): May 2012 Buy ($613/SF) → Oct 2015 Sell ($1,038/SF). Held 3.4 years. +69% change (CAGR 16%). Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 8G (Studio): Jun 2012 Buy ($706/SF) → May 2022 Sell ($880/SF). Held 10 years. +24% change (CAGR 2%). Driver: Unit size / unit mix imbalance.

3. Unit 23A (2BR): Jan 2024 Buy ($815/SF) → Feb 2026 Sell ($881/SF). Held 2 years. +8% change (CAGR 4%). Driver: Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. Unit 25F (3BR): Dec 2012 Buy ($727/SF) → Jun 2025 Sell ($1,049/SF). Held 12.5 years. +44% change (CAGR 3%). Driver: Line-level premium persistence.

Resale Depreciation:

1. Unit 11B (2BR): Feb 2012 Buy ($1,543/SF) → Mar 2026 Sell ($1,008/SF). Held 14 years. -34% change. Driver: Sponsor price normalization + Market regime timing.

2. Unit 16E (2BR): Dec 2021 Buy ($1,080/SF) → Aug 2025 Sell ($877/SF). Held 3.6 years. -18% change. Driver: Market regime timing.

3. Unit 15A (3BR): Oct 2017 Buy ($1,102/SF) → Jun 2025 Sell ($1,059/SF). Held 7.6 years. -4% change. Driver: Market regime timing.

4. Unit 9B (2BR): Mar 2012 Buy ($685/SF) → Feb 2016 Sell ($628/SF). Held 3.9 years. -8% change. Driver: Market regime timing.

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Chronic long resale DOM: 2BR and 3BR units consistently breach the 90-day threshold, representing heavy liquidity friction.

• Wide PPSF dispersion: Values range drastically within the same market regimes (e.g., $800 to $1,050/SF today).

• Decoupled from Macro Base: Fails to follow the NYXRCSA benchmark's appreciation path from 2020-2026.

• Avoid: Do not buy 3BR or 4BR+ units expecting a quick exit. The cost of time (both sale DOM and rental DOM) destroys capital efficiency on larger footprints.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1485 Fifth Avenue is a top-heavy, cyclical Yield-Oriented asset that captures adequate baseline rental income but entirely fails as a defensive store of value. Post-sponsor behavior proves that pricing does not structurally compound; instead, PPSF moves strictly at the mercy of market regimes, currently mean-reverting downward despite broader NYC benchmarks pushing to historic highs. Liquidity relies strictly on unit mix imbalances—Studios and 1BRs clear well, while the building's dense 2BR and 3BR concentrations sit for chronic 85+ day intervals. Investors should avoid larger units targeting appreciation, utilizing this asset purely for yield capture in smaller footprints where rental leakage is minimized.