123 Baxter Street
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
Type: Postwar Resale Condo (Built 2006).
Vintage: Mature Resale.
Scale: Boutique (23 Units, 7 Floors).
Classification: Yield-Oriented
Justification: Post-sponsor data classifies 123 Baxter Street as a classic "Value Trap" for appreciation buyers but a "Cash Cow" for yield seekers. Despite a market benchmark (NYXRCSA) that has risen significantly over the last two decades (Index ~330 in late 2025), this building’s resale pricing has remained shockingly flat since its 2007 sponsor sales. However, the asset supports high rental yields, making it a pure income play.
Sponsor Normalization Disclosure: Transactions from late 2007 (e.g., Units 4A, 4C, 5C, 2A, 3B, 6B) are treated as Sponsor Baseline. These units sold in the $1,100–$1,200 PPSF range in 2007 and are used to measure long-term compounding (or lack thereof).
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
The building is weighted toward mid-to-large format units, unusual for the Chinatown submarket.
C Line (Approx. 1,061 sqft): 1 Bed / 1 Bath. The "Starter" line. Approx. 20% of sales activity.
A Line (Approx. 1,521 sqft): 2-3 Bed / 2 Bath. Core family line. Consistent turnover.
B Line (Approx. 1,753–2,012 sqft): 2-3 Bed / 2 Bath. Large format.
D Line (Mixed 1,100–2,133 sqft): Varies by floor. 2D/3D are smaller 2-beds; 5D/6D are large 3-beds.
Penthouses (Approx. 3,000 sqft): Trophy assets (PHA, PHB).
Analysis: The unit sizes are generous (1,000+ sqft for 1-beds), which supports high absolute rents but suppresses PPSF velocity because the absolute price points ($1.2M–$2M+) face stiffer competition from established neighborhoods like Tribeca or SoHo nearby.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
A. Liquidity (Speed)
C Line (1 Bed): Moderate. Recent DOMs are tight (Unit 6C: No listing DOM recorded, but historically ~103 days).
A Line (2-3 Bed): Variable. Unit 5A (2023) cleared in 62 days, but historically took longer (110 days in 2011).
B/D Lines (Large): Severe Drag. Unit 4B took 229 days (2017); Unit 3D took 196 days (2019).
Penthouses: Frozen. PHA sat for 859 days before selling in 2022.
B. Price Strength (PPSF)
A Line: $1,300–$1,450 psf range (Peak 2016, stable 2023).
C Line: $1,170–$1,240 psf range. Structural Ceiling. This line trades almost exactly where it did in 2007.
Large Units (B/D): Discounted. Often trade <$1,100 psf due to high absolute price (e.g., Unit 3B sold at $956 psf in 2021).
C. Appreciation (Compounding)
C Line: Zero Growth.
2007 (Sponsor): ~$1,168–$1,224 psf.
2022 (Resale): $1,178 psf.
Driver: Line-level premium persistence (negative).
A Line: Modest Growth.
2007 (Sponsor): $1,104 psf.
2023 (Resale): $1,311 psf.
Result: ~19% total gain over 16 years.
Driver: Market regime timing.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
2007 Baseline (Sponsor): $1,050–$1,200 psf.
2014-2016 Peak: $1,200–$1,450 psf (Some units like 2A hit $1,446).
2021-2023 Correction: $1,100–$1,300 psf.
2025 (Projected/Recent): ~$1,275 psf (Unit 3A).
Conclusion: Flat. While the NYXRCSA benchmark tripled or doubled since 2000 (and rose significantly post-2010), 123 Baxter Street has essentially traded sideways for 15+ years. 2023 pricing is barely above 2007 sponsor pricing.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
MANDATORY CALCULATION:
Unit 5C (2021): Rented $5,500. DOM 33. Size 1,061 sf.
Rent/SF: ~$62.
Yield: Asset Value ~$1.25M (based on 2022 sale of 6C).
Gross Yield: ($5,500 × 12) ÷ 1.25M ≈ 5.3%.
Unit 3B (2019): Rented $8,500. DOM 67. Size 2,012 sf.
Rent/SF: ~$50.
Yield: Asset Value ~$1.9M (based on 2021 sale of 3B).
Gross Yield: ($8,500 × 12) ÷ 1.9M ≈ 5.4%.
A. Rent Capture Summary
The building consistently delivers >5% gross yields, which is exceptional for Manhattan condos (typically 2.5–3.5%).
Driver: The suppression of resale prices (denominator) combined with strong rental demand for doorman buildings in Chinatown (numerator) creates a "Yield Trap" — bad for sellers, good for landlords.
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
A. Liquidity Score: 45/100
Penalty: Extreme DOM outliers (PHA 859 days, 3D 196 days, 4B 229 days). Large units are illiquid.
Support: Smaller units (A/C lines) move reasonably well (60–90 days).
B. Rent Capture Score: 82/100
Bonus: Yields reliably exceed 5%.
Efficiency: Rental DOM is generally healthy (10–30 days for C line).
C. Appreciation Score: 25/100
Penalty: Multiple lines show flat or negative nominal growth over 10–15 years (e.g., C line).
Support: None. The building severely underperforms the NYXRCSA benchmark.
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: (45 × 0.35) + (82 × 0.30) + (25 × 0.35) = 49.1
Category: Yield-Oriented (Note: While the composite score is low due to poor appreciation/liquidity, the building's specific strength is Yield. It fails as an Appreciation asset.)
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Depreciation / Flat Examples (The "Value Trap"):
Unit 6C (C Line): Sold 2014 ($1.26M) → Sold 2022 ($1.25M).
Loss: -$10k over 8 years.
Driver: Market regime timing / Structural Ceiling.
Unit 5C (C Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($1.266M) → Sold 2018 ($1.315M).
Gain: +3.8% total over 11 years (CAGR ~0.3%).
Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
Unit 4C (C Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($1.242M) → Sold 2019 ($1.248M).
Gain: +0.5% total over 12 years.
Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
Unit 3B (B Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($1.93M) → Sold 2021 ($1.925M).
Loss: -$5k over 14 years.
Driver: Liquidity shift (Large unit discount).
Appreciation Examples (Modest):
Unit 5A (A Line): Sold 2014 ($1.925M) → Sold 2023 ($1.995M).
Gain: +3.6% over 9 years. (Still effectively flat real terms).
Driver: Market regime timing.
Unit 2A (A Line): Sold 2013 ($1.7M) → Sold 2016 ($2.2M).
Gain: +29% over 3 years.
Driver: Market regime timing (Captured the 2013-2015 run-up).
Unit 5D (D Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($2.54M) → Sold 2024 ($2.26M).
Loss: -$280k. (Listed here to show that even "recent" sales are down from sponsor).
Note: It is difficult to find sustained long-term appreciation examples outside of the short 2013–2015 window.
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Risk 1: The "2007 Sponsor" Ceiling. Buyers should be aware that units today are trading at or below their original 2007 sponsor prices.
Risk 2: Liquidity in Large Units. Buying a 2,000+ sqft unit (B/D line) entails a risk of 6–12 month exit times (e.g., PHA 859 days, 4B 229 days).
Risk 3: False Comparables. Do not compare this to Tribeca/SoHo. This building trades at a significant discount ($1,200 psf vs $2,000+ psf nearby) for a reason; do not bank on the gap closing.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
123 Baxter Street is a textbook Yield-Oriented asset that has failed to generate capital appreciation for nearly two decades. Post-sponsor data reveals a "dead money" trap for sellers, with numerous units (especially C and B lines) trading flat or at a loss compared to 2007/2014 pricing levels. However, this pricing stagnation creates a massive opportunity for income investors: because purchase prices are suppressed (~$1,200 PSF) while rental demand remains robust, the building generates gross yields exceeding 5%, significantly outperforming the broader Manhattan average. Buy here strictly for cash flow; do not expect growth.
B³ SCORECARD
Category: Yield-Oriented
Composite Score: 49.1
Liquidity: 45
Median Resale DOM: 124 Days
Rent Capture: 82
Appreciation: 25
Unit Mix Summary:
Studio/1-Bed: 29% of Activity (Structural Ceiling / Zero Growth)
2-Bed+: 71% of Activity (Severe Liquidity Drag / High DOM Risk)