123 Baxter Street

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Type: Postwar Resale Condo (Built 2006).

• Vintage: Mature Resale.

• Scale: Boutique (23 Units, 7 Floors).

• Classification: Yield-Oriented

Justification: Post-sponsor data classifies 123 Baxter Street as a classic "Value Trap" for appreciation buyers but a "Cash Cow" for yield seekers. Despite a market benchmark (NYXRCSA) that has risen significantly over the last two decades (Index ~330 in late 2025), this building’s resale pricing has remained shockingly flat since its 2007 sponsor sales. However, the asset supports high rental yields, making it a pure income play.

Sponsor Normalization Disclosure: Transactions from late 2007 (e.g., Units 4A, 4C, 5C, 2A, 3B, 6B) are treated as Sponsor Baseline. These units sold in the $1,100–$1,200 PPSF range in 2007 and are used to measure long-term compounding (or lack thereof).

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

The building is weighted toward mid-to-large format units, unusual for the Chinatown submarket.

• C Line (Approx. 1,061 sqft): 1 Bed / 1 Bath. The "Starter" line. Approx. 20% of sales activity.

• A Line (Approx. 1,521 sqft): 2-3 Bed / 2 Bath. Core family line. Consistent turnover.

• B Line (Approx. 1,753–2,012 sqft): 2-3 Bed / 2 Bath. Large format.

• D Line (Mixed 1,100–2,133 sqft): Varies by floor. 2D/3D are smaller 2-beds; 5D/6D are large 3-beds.

• Penthouses (Approx. 3,000 sqft): Trophy assets (PHA, PHB).

Analysis: The unit sizes are generous (1,000+ sqft for 1-beds), which supports high absolute rents but suppresses PPSF velocity because the absolute price points ($1.2M–$2M+) face stiffer competition from established neighborhoods like Tribeca or SoHo nearby.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity (Speed)

• C Line (1 Bed): Moderate. Recent DOMs are tight (Unit 6C: No listing DOM recorded, but historically ~103 days).

• A Line (2-3 Bed): Variable. Unit 5A (2023) cleared in 62 days, but historically took longer (110 days in 2011).

• B/D Lines (Large): Severe Drag. Unit 4B took 229 days (2017); Unit 3D took 196 days (2019).

• Penthouses: Frozen. PHA sat for 859 days before selling in 2022.

B. Price Strength (PPSF)

• A Line: $1,300–$1,450 psf range (Peak 2016, stable 2023).

• C Line: $1,170–$1,240 psf range. Structural Ceiling. This line trades almost exactly where it did in 2007.

• Large Units (B/D): Discounted. Often trade <$1,100 psf due to high absolute price (e.g., Unit 3B sold at $956 psf in 2021).

C. Appreciation (Compounding)

• C Line: Zero Growth.

  • 2007 (Sponsor): ~$1,168–$1,224 psf.

  • 2022 (Resale): $1,178 psf.

  • Driver: Line-level premium persistence (negative).

• A Line: Modest Growth.

  • 2007 (Sponsor): $1,104 psf.

  • 2023 (Resale): $1,311 psf.

  • Result: ~19% total gain over 16 years.

  • Driver: Market regime timing.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2007 Baseline (Sponsor): $1,050–$1,200 psf.

• 2014-2016 Peak: $1,200–$1,450 psf (Some units like 2A hit $1,446).

• 2021-2023 Correction: $1,100–$1,300 psf.

• 2025 (Projected/Recent): ~$1,275 psf (Unit 3A).

Conclusion: Flat. While the NYXRCSA benchmark tripled or doubled since 2000 (and rose significantly post-2010), 123 Baxter Street has essentially traded sideways for 15+ years. 2023 pricing is barely above 2007 sponsor pricing.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

MANDATORY CALCULATION:

• Unit 5C (2021): Rented $5,500. DOM 33. Size 1,061 sf.

  • Rent/SF: ~$62.

  • Yield: Asset Value ~$1.25M (based on 2022 sale of 6C).

  • Gross Yield: ($5,500 × 12) ÷ 1.25M ≈ 5.3%.

• Unit 3B (2019): Rented $8,500. DOM 67. Size 2,012 sf.

  • Rent/SF: ~$50.

  • Yield: Asset Value ~$1.9M (based on 2021 sale of 3B).

  • Gross Yield: ($8,500 × 12) ÷ 1.9M ≈ 5.4%.

A. Rent Capture Summary

• The building consistently delivers >5% gross yields, which is exceptional for Manhattan condos (typically 2.5–3.5%).

Driver: The suppression of resale prices (denominator) combined with strong rental demand for doorman buildings in Chinatown (numerator) creates a "Yield Trap" — bad for sellers, good for landlords.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

A. Liquidity Score: 45/100

• Penalty: Extreme DOM outliers (PHA 859 days, 3D 196 days, 4B 229 days). Large units are illiquid.

• Support: Smaller units (A/C lines) move reasonably well (60–90 days).

B. Rent Capture Score: 82/100

• Bonus: Yields reliably exceed 5%.

• Efficiency: Rental DOM is generally healthy (10–30 days for C line).

C. Appreciation Score: 25/100

• Penalty: Multiple lines show flat or negative nominal growth over 10–15 years (e.g., C line).

• Support: None. The building severely underperforms the NYXRCSA benchmark.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score: (45 × 0.35) + (82 × 0.30) + (25 × 0.35) = 49.1

Category: Yield-Oriented (Note: While the composite score is low due to poor appreciation/liquidity, the building's specific strength is Yield. It fails as an Appreciation asset.)

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES

Depreciation / Flat Examples (The "Value Trap"):

1. Unit 6C (C Line): Sold 2014 ($1.26M) → Sold 2022 ($1.25M).

   • Loss: -$10k over 8 years.

   • Driver: Market regime timing / Structural Ceiling.

2. Unit 5C (C Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($1.266M) → Sold 2018 ($1.315M).

   • Gain: +3.8% total over 11 years (CAGR ~0.3%).

   • Driver: Sponsor price normalization.

3. Unit 4C (C Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($1.242M) → Sold 2019 ($1.248M).

   • Gain: +0.5% total over 12 years.

   • Driver: Sponsor price normalization.

4. Unit 3B (B Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($1.93M) → Sold 2021 ($1.925M).

   • Loss: -$5k over 14 years.

   • Driver: Liquidity shift (Large unit discount).

Appreciation Examples (Modest):

1. Unit 5A (A Line): Sold 2014 ($1.925M) → Sold 2023 ($1.995M).

   • Gain: +3.6% over 9 years. (Still effectively flat real terms).

   • Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 2A (A Line): Sold 2013 ($1.7M) → Sold 2016 ($2.2M).

   • Gain: +29% over 3 years.

   • Driver: Market regime timing (Captured the 2013-2015 run-up).

3. Unit 5D (D Line): Sold 2007 Sponsor ($2.54M) → Sold 2024 ($2.26M).

   • Loss: -$280k. (Listed here to show that even "recent" sales are down from sponsor).

   • Note: It is difficult to find sustained long-term appreciation examples outside of the short 2013–2015 window.

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Risk 1: The "2007 Sponsor" Ceiling. Buyers should be aware that units today are trading at or below their original 2007 sponsor prices.

• Risk 2: Liquidity in Large Units. Buying a 2,000+ sqft unit (B/D line) entails a risk of 6–12 month exit times (e.g., PHA 859 days, 4B 229 days).

• Risk 3: False Comparables. Do not compare this to Tribeca/SoHo. This building trades at a significant discount ($1,200 psf vs $2,000+ psf nearby) for a reason; do not bank on the gap closing.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

123 Baxter Street is a textbook Yield-Oriented asset that has failed to generate capital appreciation for nearly two decades. Post-sponsor data reveals a "dead money" trap for sellers, with numerous units (especially C and B lines) trading flat or at a loss compared to 2007/2014 pricing levels. However, this pricing stagnation creates a massive opportunity for income investors: because purchase prices are suppressed (~$1,200 PSF) while rental demand remains robust, the building generates gross yields exceeding 5%, significantly outperforming the broader Manhattan average. Buy here strictly for cash flow; do not expect growth.

B³ SCORECARD

• Category: Yield-Oriented

• Composite Score: 49.1

• Liquidity: 45

• Median Resale DOM: 124 Days

• Rent Capture: 82

• Appreciation: 25

• Unit Mix Summary:

  Studio/1-Bed: 29% of Activity (Structural Ceiling / Zero Growth)

  2-Bed+: 71% of Activity (Severe Liquidity Drag / High DOM Risk)