100 BARCLAY STREET

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Condo (2015 Conversion of 1927 Ralph Walker commercial tower)

• Scale: 157 Units, 33 Floors

• Classification: Yield-Oriented

Justification: One Hundred Barclay exhibits a classic "Sponsor Premium Dissipation" curve. While the building commands impressive absolute rents—indicating high tenant demand—resale values have systematically failed to compound above the 2016–2017 sponsor basis. Post-sponsor data reveals a divergence: rental yields are robust (Driver 4: Unit Mix/Size suitability for families), but resale pricing suffers from chronic depreciation relative to original contract prices (Driver 5: Sponsor Price Normalization). The building is currently finding a new, lower price floor in the resale market, distinct from its premium launch pricing.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Inventory based on sales/rental records-.

• Studios/1BR: Minority of inventory. High velocity.

• 2BR: ~25% of activity. Moderate liquidity.

• 3BR & 4BR+: Dominant inventory (~60%+ of recorded sales).

  • 3BR/3BA is the volume driver (33 sales recorded).

  • 4BR+ units show significant days on market (DOM) drag.

Analysis: The heavy concentration of large-format units (3-4 beds) creates volatility in liquidity. While these units generate massive rental income (e.g., $30k/month for 4-beds), they are capital-intensive to trade, leading to bifurcated liquidity: small units trade in <40 days, while large units often languish for 200–500+ days.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity (2024–2025 Resale Data) Liquidity is highly inconsistent and dependent on unit size (Driver 4).

1. Fastest Lines (Small/Mid): Unit 15H (26 days), Unit 12L (28 days), Unit 15C (32 days), Unit 16G (32 days).

2. Slowest Lines (Large/Premium): Unit 16L (559 days), Unit 20C (538 days), Unit 14G (534 days), Unit 17D (471 days).

Observation: Sponsor normalization rule excludes early "No Listing" sales. Current resale median DOM is skewed heavily by large units stuck on the market.

B. Appreciation (Sponsor vs. Resale) The building demonstrates negative compounding (Value Trap) for original owners. The vast majority of resales close below the 2016–2017 sponsor acquisition price.

• Premium Erasure: Lines ending in C, G, L, and N show consistent inability to recapture sponsor pricing.

• Compounding Lines: None identified with sufficient volume. Gains are isolated and rare.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2016–2017 (Sponsor Era): ~$2,100–$2,400 PPSF (Artificial Ceiling).

• 2019–2021 (Correction): ~$1,800–$2,000 PPSF.

• 2024–2025 (Current Reality): ~$1,500–$1,800 PPSF for mid-floor units.

Conclusion: Drawdown. The building has undergone a structural repricing, currently trading ~15–20% below its initial offering basis.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

The building’s strongest metric. Despite falling asset prices, rental demand is relentless.

A. Rent Capture Metrics (Selected Examples)

• Unit 14D (4BR): Rented May 2025 for $29,995/mo.

  • Rent/SF: ~$115.

  • Yield Context: Purchased for $6.075M (2019). Gross Yield ~5.9%.

• Unit 11D (2BR): Rented Feb 2025 for $15,500/mo.

  • Rent/SF: ~$137.

  • Yield Context: 2017 basis ~$3.05M. Gross Yield ~6.1%.

B. Rent Appreciation

• Unit 11D Trend:

  • Jan 2019: $12,500

  • Feb 2025: $15,500

  • Growth: +24% over 6 years (~3.6% CAGR). Stable, income-generating growth despite asset depreciation.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 55

  • Speed: Penalized significantly by 4BR+ inventory sitting for 300+ days.

  • Consistency: High dispersion between small (fast) and large (slow) units.

• Rent Capture Score: 88

  • Efficiency: Elite. $115–$140 PPSF rents are strong for the Financial District/Tribeca border.

  • Absorption: Rental DOM is generally tight (<60 days for expensive units).

• Appreciation Score: 15

  • Magnitude: Negative. Persistent capital destruction for original buyers.

  • Durability: Failed to hold value even as the broader NYXRCSA index rose long-term.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score: (55 × 0.35) + (88 × 0.30) + (15 × 0.35) = 50.9

Category: Yield-Oriented (Note: While the score is low due to poor appreciation, the behavior explicitly fits the "Yield" profile: high rent capture with depreciating asset value).

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES

Resale Depreciation Examples (Prevalent Driver 5: Sponsor Price Normalization)

1. Unit 14G (3BR, 2,369 SF)

   • Bought (Sponsor): $3,985,000 (Jul 2017)

   • Sold (Resale): $3,275,000 (May 2025)

   • Result: -17.8% Loss (Held 8 years).

   • Driver: Sponsor Price Normalization.

2. Unit 12L (3BR, 2,222 SF)

   • Bought (Sponsor): ~$4,123,000 (Jan 2017)

   • Sold (Resale): $3,700,000 (Sep 2025)

   • Result: -10% Loss (Held 8.5 years).

   • Driver: Sponsor Price Normalization.

3. Unit 15C (3BR, 1,983 SF)

   • Bought (Resale): $3,910,000 (Sep 2018)

   • Sold (Resale): $3,700,000 (May 2025)

   • Result: -5.3% Loss (Held 7 years).

   • Driver: Market Regime Timing (buying in 2018 peak, selling in high-rate environment).

4. Unit 11N (2BR, 1,589 SF)

   • Bought (Sponsor): $3,411,137 (Mar 2017)

   • Sold (Resale): $2,900,000 (Jan 2025)

   • Result: -15% Loss (Held nearly 8 years).

   • Driver: Sponsor Price Normalization.

Resale Appreciation Examples Note: Genuine resale appreciation is statistically non-existent in the provided dataset for standard inventory relative to 2016-2017 basis. The only "gains" are nominal recoveries from the 2019-2020 bottom, not structural appreciation against the building's launch pricing.

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• The "Sponsor Hangover": 2016–2017 buyers are "underwater." Expect inventory to sit as sellers refuse to realize ~15% losses, clogging liquidity.

• Large Unit Liquidity Trap: 3BR and 4BR units recently averaged 300–500 days on market. This is not a liquid asset class for larger families.

• Volatile Valuation: A unit trading at $2,100 PPSF in 2017 is now clearing at $1,573 PPSF (Unit 16G, Dec 2025).

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

One Hundred Barclay is a Yield-Oriented asset that behaves like a high-grade corporate bond: it delivers excellent, consistent income (rent) but suffers from principal erosion (price depreciation). Post-sponsor analysis reveals a "falling knife" scenario for valuation, where the artificial premium of the 2016 launch has evaporated, resulting in systematic losses for original owners selling in 2024–2025. While the building is a rental powerhouse—generating 5.5%–6.0% gross yields on current basis—it is a dangerous equity play. Buyers should only engage if the purchase price reflects the new baseline ($1,500–$1,700 PPSF), aggressively discounting the 2017 sponsor trades.

B³ SCORECARD

Disclosures:

• Sponsor Normalization: Excluded 2016–2018 sales with "No Listing" or <30 DOM to establish resale baseline.

• Impact: Normalization reveals the extent of value loss; unadjusted data would falsely suggest higher average PPSF ($2,200+) which the market no longer supports ($1,600+).

• Unit Mix: Heavily weighted toward 3BR+ family units, which drives the high rent but slow resale velocity.