111 Central Park North

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

• Building Type: Postwar Resale Condo (Built 2007).

• Scale: 19 Floors, 47 Units.

• Primary Category: Cyclical.

• Secondary Category: Yield-Oriented.

Justification: Post-sponsor data indicates a severely top-heavy building highly reliant on macroeconomic market cycles rather than durable structural compounding. Early sponsor sales cleared across initial price discovery baselines ($1,000–$1,400/SF) in 2007–2009. The asset matured into an extreme mid-cycle peak between 2016 and 2018, frequently achieving euphoric pricing of $1,600–$2,100+/SF. However, the mature resale market (2021–2026) demonstrates violent mean-reversion, with values cooling back to an $1,100–$1,400/SF baseline. This steep late-stage drawdown completely decouples the asset from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which pushed to historic all-time highs of 330–332 in late 2025 and early 2026. Because its massive layouts suffer from high DOM friction on both sales and rentals, the building currently functions best purely as a cyclical timing play.

2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on summary historic sales data across implicitly and explicitly categorized transactions:

• 2BR: ~28% of sales volume.

• 3BR: ~57% of sales volume.

• 4BR+: ~5% of sales volume.

• (Note: 1BR and Studio data is virtually non-existent in the building's core trading history).

Influence on Liquidity & Rent Behavior: The building is extraordinarily top-heavy, completely anchored by 2BR and 3BR units which constitute the vast majority of all volume. The near-total absence of highly liquid, smaller footprints creates a severe unit size imbalance. Without a 1BR segment to act as a liquidity engine, the massive 2BR and 3BR inventory dictates the building's true drag, causing standard resales to frequently sit for 85 to 140+ days before offloading, and suffering massive vacancy intervals on the rental market.

3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

A. Liquidity

• Fastest Resale Velocity: Liquidity is structurally impaired across the board. The rare efficient clears (e.g., 5B in 31 days, 4A in 44 days) are historical outliers or heavily dependent on precise regime timing.

• Slowest Resale Velocity: The building's core inventory routinely sits for destructive durations. Recent mature resales include Unit 8C at 144 days, 6C at 132 days, 3B at 112 days, 11A at 105 days, 5C at 103 days, 4A at 90 days, and 10B at 85 days.

B. Price Strength

• Mid-cycle premium stacks have entirely broken down. A and C lines that successfully commanded $1,900–$2,130/SF during the 2016-2018 peak market have corrected violently to a baseline roughly settling between $1,100–$1,500/SF today.

C. Appreciation

• Lines are deeply cyclical. Holders from the 2008–2010 early phase realized strong initial compounding into the 2016 peak. Conversely, buyers who entered during the 2016–2018 mid-cycle peak exhibit severe negative compounding and widespread equity destruction upon current exit.

4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

• 2007–2010 (Sponsor Clearance): Initial clearance and price discovery generally at $1,000–$1,400/SF, with some discounted lines trading lower.

• 2016–2018 (Mid-Cycle Peak): The asset achieves maximum pricing power, averaging a staggering $1,600–$2,130/SF.

• 2021–2026 (Drawdown / Normalization): A distinct and severe cyclical reset, declining and settling between $1,100–$1,500/SF. Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. Value is actively adjusting violently downward from the peak, completely failing to track the steady upward macro growth proven by the NYXRCSA index moving to 330 from 2024 to 2026.

5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

A. Rent Capture by Line & Unit Type

• Formula: Effective Annual Rent = Achieved Rent × (365 − Rental DOM) ÷ 365.

• Example 1 (Moderate Leakage): Unit 10B (3BR). Achieved $12,500/mo. DOM 48. Effective Rent = $12,500 × (365 - 48) ÷ 365 = $10,856/mo.

• Example 2 (Severe Leakage): Unit 15C (2BR). Achieved $7,500/mo. DOM 61. Effective Rent = $7,500 × (365 - 61) ÷ 365 = $6,246/mo.

• Example 3 (Catastrophic Leakage): Unit 17A (3BR). Achieved $9,950/mo. DOM 181. Effective Rent = $9,950 × (365 - 181) ÷ 365 = $5,016/mo.

B. Rent Appreciation Nominal rent per SF is extremely robust, typically generating $55 to $71/SF depending on the layout. However, true rent capture is fundamentally broken by unit size imbalances; 2BR and 3BR rentals suffer from catastrophic localized DOM spikes (e.g., 61 days, 104 days, 181 days) creating devastating cash flow leakage that destroys up to 30% of realized annual yields.

6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

• Liquidity Score: 40

  • Speed: Poor. Normalized median resale DOM frequently ranges from 85 to 140+ days for the entire core inventory.

  • Consistency: Low. Structurally impaired by a top-heavy layout mix.

• Rent Capture Score: 60

  • Efficiency: Strong nominal ($55–$71/SF).

  • Absorption: Failing. Exceptional baseline rates are heavily compromised by extreme rental DOM outliers on massive footprints.

• Appreciation Score: 45

  • Durability: Cyclical. Widespread equity loss for late-stage peak buyers (2016-2018) offsets the strong baseline compounding experienced by the initial 2008-2010 cohort.

7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

Composite Score = (40 × 0.35) + (60 × 0.30) + (45 × 0.35) = 47.75. Category Assignment: Cyclical / Yield-Oriented. The asset sits well below the 65 threshold for a Hybrid classification. High friction costs in the sales market on large units entirely prevent it from operating as a defensive core asset.

8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES (REQUIRED)

Resale Appreciation (Early Cycle Timing):

1. Unit 6A (3BR): Mar 2009 Buy ($818/SF) → Jul 2016 Sell ($1,406/SF). Held 7.3 years. +71% change (CAGR ~7.5%). Driver: Market regime timing.

2. Unit 4A (3BR): Jul 2010 Buy ($955/SF) → Jul 2016 Sell ($1,381/SF with 44 DOM). Held 6.0 years. +44% change (CAGR ~6.3%). Driver: Market regime timing.

3. Unit 8C (3BR): Apr 2008 Buy ($1,262/SF) → Feb 2020 Sell ($1,511/SF with 144 DOM). Held 11.8 years. +19% change (CAGR ~1.5%). Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

4. Unit 5B (3BR): Jul 2008 Buy ($1,265/SF) → Jun 2017 Sell ($1,513/SF with 31 DOM). Held 8.9 years. +19% change (CAGR ~2.0%). Driver: Market regime timing.

Resale Depreciation (Late Cycle / Structural Baseline Shifts): (Note: Because mid-cycle peak buyers heavily struggle to exit without taking a loss, the following pairs explicitly track original peak clearing prices against mature resale attempts within matching lines to map capital decay).

1. Unit 4A (3BR): Jul 2016 Peak Trade ($1,381/SF) → Oct 2024 Sell ($1,122/SF with 90 DOM). Held 8.2 years. -18.7% change. Driver: Market regime timing + Liquidity shift (DOM change).

2. 3BR Line Normalization: Unit 14A Peak Trade (Jan 2018 at $2,115/SF) vs Unit 12A Resale (Jun 2022 at $1,452/SF with 73 DOM). -31% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

3. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 16C Peak Trade (Jan 2018 at $2,130/SF) vs Unit 11C Resale (Mar 2025 at $1,582/SF with 61 DOM). -25% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

4. 2BR Line Normalization: Unit 8B Peak Trade (Apr 2016 at $1,925/SF) vs Unit 9B Resale (Jul 2021 at $1,420/SF). -26% baseline shift. Driver: Market regime timing.

9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

• Chronic Illiquidity on Large Layouts: The building's core inventory (2BR and 3BR units) routinely sits for massive intervals on the sales market (frequently 85 to 144 days), representing deep secondary friction.

• Severe Late-Stage Mean Reversion: Buyers who purchased during the 2016–2018 peak (frequently above $1,900/SF) have seen their equity violently structurally decay, missing the recent macro upswings of the broader NYXRCSA index which hit ~330 in early 2026.

• Rental Leakage: Landlords holding larger footprints are heavily exposed to volatile vacancy; outsized 2BR/3BR rental DOM (50 to 180 days) completely destroys up to 30% of a year's gross yield.

• Avoid: Purchasing 2BR or 3BR units under the assumption of short-term appreciation or immediate liquidity. The high holding cost of time completely neutralizes theoretical upside on these larger footprints.

10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

111 Central Park North is an extremely top-heavy, cyclical postwar condo that generated strong wealth for its early 2008–2010 buyers but aggressively punishes mid-cycle peak entrants today. The building's operational rhythm is dragged down by its dominant 2BR and 3BR inventory, which severely lacks secondary market liquidity, resulting in massive 85 to 140-day waits for resale clears. Furthermore, pricing has drawn down violently from its $1,900–$2,100+/SF peak to an $1,100–$1,400/SF plateau, entirely untethered from the all-time highs of the NYXRCSA benchmark. Investors must treat this purely as a yield/timing play on heavily discounted cost bases, strictly avoiding the assumption that these massive luxury footprints will offer defensive capital preservation or efficient secondary exits.

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