The Collection at 20 Pine (20 Pine Street)
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
The Collection at 20 Pine (20 Pine Street) is a massive postwar resale condo (converted 2009) in the Financial District, comprising 409 units across 38 floors. Based on post-sponsor behavior, the building is classified as Yield-Oriented (At Risk). While it generates massive rental throughput (408 recorded rentals), the asset suffers from chronic capital stagnation. Urbandigs data indicates it underperforms the Financial District sub-market by 17.0%. Longitudinal analysis reveals that units held for 10–16 years are frequently trading at nominal losses or zero growth, drastically diverging from the NYXRCSA benchmark, which reached 331.14 in October 2025.
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
Based on 586 recorded sales, the inventory is overwhelmingly skewed toward commoditized small units.
Studio: ~218 sales (~37% of activity). Median PPSF: $998.
1BR: ~145 sales (~25% of activity). Median PPSF: $994–$1,024.
2BR: ~106 sales (~18% of activity). Median PPSF: $1,060.
3BR+: ~22 sales (<4% of activity).
Analysis: The building has a severe unit mix imbalance. The high density of Studios and 1BRs creates intense internal competition, preventing price leverage. This mix supports high-velocity rentals but caps resale appreciation, as buyers have near-infinite alternatives within the same building.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
Liquidity (Resale Only): Resale liquidity is inconsistent.
Unit 703 (Studio): 297 Days on Market (Sold May 2025).
Unit 801 (Studio): 383 Days on Market (Sold Mar 2025).
Unit 2006 (3BR): 256 Days on Market (Sold Mar 2025).
Unit 1008 (1BR): 44 Days on Market (Sold Nov 2025).
Conclusion: While some units move in <50 days, the "tail" of inventory sits for 6–12 months, indicating a Liquidity Shift.
Price Strength:
Pricing is notably weak. Recent trades consistently clear below $1,000 PPSF (e.g., Unit 1404 at $978 PPSF in Nov 2025).
This is a structural discount compared to the 2014–2016 peak where units traded near $1,300+ PPSF.
Appreciation:
Compounding is negative.
Unit 2401 (Studio): Sold for $947,830 in Dec 2009. Resold for $855,000 in Dec 2025. -9.8% Nominal Loss over 16 years.
During this same period, the NYXRCSA index rose significantly. This confirms the building acts as a capital sink.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
2008–2010 (Sponsor Phase): Pricing established at $900–$1,200 PPSF (e.g., Unit 2401 at $1,146 PPSF).
2014–2016 (Cyclical Peak): Resale pricing peaked at $1,300–$1,500 PPSF (e.g., Unit 3201 at $1,546 PPSF in 2015).
2023–2025 (Mean-Reversion): Pricing has collapsed back to $900–$1,100 PPSF.
Example: Unit 1613 sold for $1.66M ($0 PPSF data error, but implies drop from ask) in Nov 2024.
Conclusion: Cyclical / Mean-Reverting. The building has round-tripped to 2009 pricing levels.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
Mandatory Metric: Effective Annual Rent (EAR)
Unit 708 (1BR, 2025): Achieved $5,800. DOM: 99. EAR: $4,226.
Calculation: $5,800 × (266/365). ~27% Income Leakage.
Unit 2112 (Studio, 2025): Achieved $4,100. DOM: 17. EAR: $3,909.
Calculation: $4,100 × (348/365). Good capture.
Unit 2602 (Studio, 2025): Achieved $4,500. DOM: 40. EAR: $4,006.
Unit 407 (Studio, 2025): Achieved $5,500. DOM: 71. EAR: $4,430.
Analysis: The building functions as a high-volume rental engine. Nominal rents are healthy ($60–$75 PPSF). However, mispriced units (like 708) suffer from income leakage. The sheer volume of rentals (408 recorded) ensures liquidity but limits rental pricing power due to competition.
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
Liquidity Score: 50 (Moderate to Weak. While volume is high, median resale DOM often exceeds 120 days, with outliers like Unit 801 taking 383 days).
Rent Capture Score: 70 (Strong nominal yields and high velocity for correctly priced units, penalized by leakage in the commoditized studio segment).
Appreciation Score: 15 (Critical Failure. Long-term holds (10+ years) consistently show negative or flat nominal returns, massively underperforming the benchmark).
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: 43.75
Category: Yield-Oriented (At Risk)
Justification: The building meets the "Yield" criteria via rental velocity. However, the consistent destruction of resale capital (Appreciation Score 15) places it firmly in the "At Risk" category.
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Resale Depreciation (Capital Erosion)
Unit 2401 (Studio):
Bought: $947,830 ($1,146 PPSF) in Dec 2009.
Sold: $855,000 ($1,033 PPSF) in Dec 2025.
Result: -9.8% Nominal Loss over 16 years.
Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
Unit 1008 (1BR):
Bought: $1,426,000 ($1,180 PPSF) in Aug 2017.
Sold: $1,225,000 ($1,014 PPSF) in Nov 2025.
Result: -14% Loss over 8 years.
Driver: Market regime timing (Bought near peak).
Unit 1408 (1BR):
Bought: $1,200,000 (est. ~$1,000 PPSF) in Dec 2015.
Sold: $1,075,000 ($889 PPSF) in Oct 2024.
Result: -10.4% Loss over 9 years.
Driver: Liquidity shift (DOM change).
Unit 406 (1BR):
Bought: $1,225,000 ($892 PPSF) in Apr 2018.
Sold: $1,100,000 ($801 PPSF) in Nov 2024.
Result: -10.2% Loss over 6 years.
Driver: Market regime timing.
Resale Appreciation (Rare/Market Timing)
Unit 404 (Studio):
Bought: $519,307 ($739 PPSF) in Dec 2009.
Sold: $815,000 ($1,160 PPSF) in Jan 2017.
Result: +57% Gain.
Driver: Market regime timing (Bought at 2009 trough).
Unit 1211 (2BR):
Bought: $872,014 ($713 PPSF) in Jul 2009.
Sold: $1,335,000 ($1,091 PPSF) in Dec 2016.
Result: +53% Gain.
Driver: Market regime timing (Exited at 2016 peak).
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Capital Destruction: Investing in 20 Pine for appreciation is a proven losing strategy based on 2009–2025 data. Unit 2401 lost value over a 16-year hold.
Liquidity Trap: High DOMs (e.g., 383 days for Unit 801) indicate that selling requires patience or deep discounting.
Red Flag: Do not buy generic Studios/1BRs expecting growth; the unit mix imbalance creates a ceiling on price appreciation due to infinite supply.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Collection at 20 Pine is a Yield-Oriented (At Risk) asset that functions as a high-churn rental factory but a "value trap" for capital. While the building offers entry-level pricing ($900–$1,000 PPSF) and consistent rental demand, post-sponsor analysis reveals that long-term owners frequently exit at nominal losses. Recent 2024–2025 resales are clearing at prices roughly equivalent to or below 2009 sponsor levels, representing a massive real-value loss against the NYXRCSA benchmark. Income capture is viable for cash-flow investors, but equity preservation is severely compromised by sponsor price normalization and unit mix imbalance.
B³ SCORECARD
Liquidity Score: 50
Rent Capture Score: 70
Appreciation Score: 15
Composite Score: 43.75
Category: Yield-Oriented (At Risk)
Unit Mix: Studio/1BR Dominant (~62% of sales)
Disclosures: Approximately 50+ transactions from 2008–2010 (e.g., Unit 1516, 2307) were reclassified as Sponsor-Driven due to "No Listing" or DOM < 30 days. These transactions established the high initial pricing baseline ($1,000+ PPSF) against which current resales show depreciation.