Trump International Hotel and Tower (1 Central Park West)

Trump International is a high-prestige, Hybrid (At Risk) asset that acts as an absolute price leader in Lincoln Square but fails as a capital growth vehicle. Post-sponsor behavior is defined by flat-to-negative compounding in major stacks and significant income leakage, where nearly 40% of potential rental income is lost to absorption friction (DOM). Opportunity is restricted to high-liquidity 2BR lines, while the larger 3BR+ units are trapped in a mean-reverting cycle where 2025 trades are failing to maintain mid-decade peaks.
Tony InJe Yeo's avatar
Feb 17, 2026
Trump International Hotel and Tower (1 Central Park West)

1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)

Trump International Hotel and Tower (1 Central Park West) is a mature resale condo completed in 1960 and converted/renovated in the late 1990s. Consisting of 156 units across 44 floors, the building is a high-scale asset in the Lincoln Square sub-market. Based on post-sponsor behavior, the building is classified as Hybrid (At Risk). While it significantly outperforms Lincoln Square by 50.7% in absolute pricing, its capital compounding is inconsistent, and it suffers from significant "income leakage" due to high rental absorption friction (median DOM).


2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION

Based on 225 recorded sales and 87 rental transactions, the building’s inventory and activity are distributed as follows:

  • 2BR: ~38% of sales activity (Median PPSF: $2,071–$2,382). Dominant liquidity provider.

  • 3BR+: ~35% of sales activity (Median PPSF: $3,026–$4,641). High-tier concentration.

  • 1BR: ~15% of activity (Median PPSF: $1,104–$2,828).

  • Studios: ~4.5% of activity (Median PPSF: $1,264).

Analysis: The building's high concentration of 2BR and 3BR+ units (combined ~73% of activity) creates a profile of high-value trades but subjects the asset to liquidity shifts, as these larger footprints face longer absorption periods in the secondary market.


3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY

  • Liquidity (Fastest Lines): Line B (2BR/2BA) exhibits the highest relative liquidity with a median DOM of 42 days.

  • Price Strength: Line A (3BR stacks) and Line C (4BR/5BR stacks) command structural premiums, with median PPSF reaching $4,122–$5,701.

  • Appreciation: Compounding is highly volatile at the line level. Line D (3BR) traded at $2,838 PPSF in 2009 and $3,037 PPSF in 2026, a CAGR of ~0.4%. This significantly trails the NYXRCSA index, which moved from approximately 160 to 331.1 in the same period.


4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)

  • 2003–2008: Early resale/conversion period; median PPSF established between $1,500 and $3,000.

  • 2012–2019: Flat/Cyclical; pricing for high-tier units (Lines A, C) peaked but failed to establish a new building-wide floor.

  • 2020–2025: Drawdown/Stagnation; recent trades like Unit 46D ($2,364 PPSF in 2025 vs. $3,546 in 2014) indicate a mean-reverting trend toward 2007-2010 levels.

  • Conclusion: Flat/Cyclical.


5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS

Mandatory Metric: Effective Annual Rent

  • Unit 39C (2BR, 2025): Achieved $16,500. DOM: 139. Effective Rent: $10,216.

  • Unit 25C (2BR, 2025): Achieved $18,000. DOM: 141. Effective Rent: $11,046.

  • Unit 30B (2BR, 2024): Achieved $16,000. DOM: 211. Effective Rent: $6,750.

  • Unit 25G (2BR, 2025): Achieved $20,000. DOM: 20. Effective Rent: $18,904.

Analysis: The building suffers from extreme income leakage. While nominal rents are high (~$100–$140/SF), units with high absorption times (DOM > 100) lose 35% to 58% of their annual income to vacancy.


6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)

  • Liquidity Score: 50 (Friction is high; building median DOM of 146 days is significantly above Manhattan averages).

  • Rent Capture Score: 45 (High nominal rents are consistently offset by massive leakage from prolonged vacancy).

  • Appreciation Score: 40 (Pricing is flat in real terms relative to the NYXRCSA benchmark over 15 years).


7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION

  • Composite Score: 45.0

  • Category: Hybrid (At Risk)

  • Justification: The building maintains high absolute value (Pillar 2) but lacks the liquidity (Pillar 1) and compounding (Pillar 3) required for Core or Appreciation-Driven status.


8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES

Resale Appreciation (Nominal)

  1. Unit 26A (3BR): $6,300,000 ($3,145 PPSF) in 2006 → $8,300,000 ($4,143 PPSF) in 2024. +31.7% (+1.5% CAGR). Driver: Line-level premium persistence.

  2. Unit 31F (2BR): $1,350,000 ($1,045 PPSF) in 2003 → $3,125,000 ($2,420 PPSF) in 2017. +131% (+6.2% CAGR). Driver: Market regime timing.

  3. Unit 24D (3BR): $6,400,000 ($2,838 PPSF) in 2009 → $6,850,000 ($3,037 PPSF) in 2026. +7.0% (+0.4% CAGR). Driver: Sponsor price normalization.

  4. Unit 36A (3BR): $6,500,000 ($3,104 PPSF) in 2006 → $9,250,000 ($4,417 PPSF) in 2022. +42% (+2.2% CAGR). Driver: Line-level premium persistence.

Resale Depreciation/Stagnation

  1. Unit 23D (3BR): $8,550,000 ($3,791 PPSF) in 2014 → $6,950,000 ($3,082 PPSF) in 2024. -18.7%. Driver: Liquidity shift (DOM change).

  2. Unit 40D (3BR): $7,550,000 ($3,490 PPSF) in 2008 → $4,995,000 ($2,307 PPSF) in 2020. -33.8%. Driver: Market regime timing.

  3. Unit 46D (3BR): $7,500,000 ($3,546 PPSF) in 2014 → $5,000,000 ($2,364 PPSF) in 2025. -33.3%. Driver: Unit size / unit mix imbalance.

  4. Unit 33F (2BR): $2,290,125 ($1,773 PPSF) in 2021 → No resale. Highlights Yield-Oriented volatility.


9. RISKS & RED FLAGS

  • Chronic Rental Leakage: Rental DOM frequently exceeds 130 days, destroying the net yield of high-carry 2BR and 3BR units.

  • Mean-Reversion Risk: Several high-floor D-line units are reselling at 20-30% discounts to their 2014 peaks.

  • Red Flag: Avoid the 3BR/4BA stacks (Line D) as capital growth vehicles; they show the highest price erosion and most significant liquidity shifts.


10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Trump International is a high-prestige, Hybrid (At Risk) asset that acts as an absolute price leader in Lincoln Square but fails as a capital growth vehicle. Post-sponsor behavior is defined by flat-to-negative compounding in major stacks and significant income leakage, where nearly 40% of potential rental income is lost to absorption friction (DOM). Opportunity is restricted to high-liquidity 2BR lines (Line B), while the larger 3BR+ units are trapped in a mean-reverting cycle where 2025 trades are failing to maintain mid-decade peaks.


B³ SCORECARD

  • Liquidity Score: 50

  • Rent Capture Score: 45

  • Appreciation Score: 40

  • Composite Score: 45.0

  • Category: Hybrid (At Risk)

  • Unit Mix: 2BR/3BR+ Dominant (~73%)

Disclosures: Three transactions (Units 512, 712, 916) were reclassified as Sponsor-Driven per the 30-day DOM/5-year rule. This normalization revealed that early-cycle "resale" DOM was artificially low, masking the subsequent 146-day friction median.

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