2025 Q2 New York City Residential Real Estate Market
Executive Summary and Key Findings for Q2 2025
The New York City residential real estate market presented a complex and bifurcated picture in the second quarter of 2025. While aggregate, city-wide data points to a market characterized by robust price growth and recovering sales volume, this top-line view is overwhelmingly influenced by a powerful resurgence in Manhattan. This masks significant cooling and, in some cases, a sharp contraction in activity across the outer boroughs, particularly in the Bronx and Staten Island. The defining theme of the quarter is divergence: a widening performance gap between the city's economic core and its periphery.
The market's trajectory is not uniform but is instead a composite of several distinct narratives unfolding simultaneously across the five boroughs. Key top-level findings from Q2 2025 illustrate this dynamic:
Broad Price Appreciation: City-wide, the average sales price reached $1,350,283, a 9.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase, while the median sales price climbed 10.4% YoY to $850,000. These figures represent new nominal highs for the city, signaling strong underlying asset value and a full recovery from any softness in the prior years.1
Manhattan's Dominant Rebound: The market's overall strength is anchored by Manhattan. The borough saw its sales volume surge by 18.1% YoY. Consequently, its share of the city's total sales volume swelled to 51.7%, a significant increase from 47.2% in Q2 2024. This indicates a potent return of activity to the city's high-end market.1
Outer Borough Contraction: In stark contrast to Manhattan's boom, sales activity plummeted in other areas. The Bronx experienced a 14.7% YoY drop in closed sales, while Staten Island saw a severe 29.0% YoY decline. These figures point to significant demand-side headwinds in the city's more affordable segments.1
A Tale of Two Inventories: The supply side of the market is equally fractured. Queens is grappling with a severe inventory shortage, with active listings down 30.1% YoY, creating a classic seller's market. Conversely, inventory in the Bronx has surged by 38.2% YoY, creating an acute buyer's market. This supply-side imbalance is a critical driver of current and future price trajectories across the boroughs.1
Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue on this divergent path. Manhattan and stable sub-markets in Brooklyn will likely see continued price support and transactional activity. Queens faces a potential affordability ceiling driven by its chronic lack of supply. Meanwhile, the Bronx and Staten Island are at a heightened risk of price corrections as swelling inventory levels confront faltering demand.
New York City Aggregate Market Analysis: A Resilient but Fractured Market
An examination of the aggregate data for New York City reveals a market that appears healthy and balanced on the surface. However, these city-wide metrics represent a broad average of disparate borough-level trends and must be interpreted with caution. They provide a crucial baseline for understanding the scale of the divergence occurring within the city's sub-markets.
Metric | 2Q-2025 | %Chg QOQ | %Chg YoY | %Chg 2YOY | %Chg 3YOY | |
Average Sales Price | $1,350,283 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 5.9% | |
Median Sales Price | $850,000 | 3.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 4.9% | |
Number of Sales | 9,787 | 2.7% | -1.7% | -0.9% | -32.3% | |
Listing Inventory | 18,805 | 12.4% | -1.8% | 0.7% | -8.8% | |
Absorption Rate (mo) | 5.8 | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 34.9% | |
Sales Volume ($) | $13,215,219,721 | 6.5% | 7.8% | 12.2% | -28.4% | |
Data sourced from Miller Samuel Inc. 1 |
Price Dynamics: A New Peak with a Caveat
In Q2 2025, both primary price indicators for New York City reached new highs. The average sales price climbed to $1,350,283, representing a 9.8% increase from Q2 2024. The median sales price, a more reliable indicator of the typical property's value, rose 10.4% over the same period to $850,000.1
This robust YoY growth suggests the market has not only recovered from any softness observed in 2023 and early 2024 but has entered a new phase of price expansion. When compared to the previous market peak in Q2 2022, the current average price is 5.9% higher, and the median price is 4.9% higher, confirming that Q2 2025 marks a new nominal high for the city's residential real estate values.1 The parallel growth in both average and median metrics typically points to broad-based appreciation across various price tiers. However, as the borough-level analysis will show, this strength is not universally distributed and is heavily skewed by performance in the city's core.
Transaction and Volume: Activity Normalizing Below the Boom
The market recorded 9,787 closed sales in the quarter. This figure represents a slight dip of 1.7% from the previous year but remains significantly below the frenetic, post-pandemic pace of Q2 2022, against which it is down 32.3%.1 This indicates that transactional activity has settled into a more sustainable, "normal" rhythm compared to the boom years.
A critical analytical point emerges when comparing the number of transactions to the total sales volume. While the number of sales fell slightly YoY, the total dollar volume of those sales increased by a healthy 7.8% to over $13.2 billion.1 The only way for total volume to increase while the number of transactions decreases is for the average price of each transaction to have risen substantially. This not only confirms the price appreciation data but also serves as the first clear mathematical evidence that the composition of sales has shifted toward higher-priced properties, a trend driven almost entirely by Manhattan.
Inventory and Absorption: A Tense Equilibrium
On the supply side, active listing inventory stood at 18,805 units at the end of the quarter. This is a 12.4% increase from Q1 2025, reflecting typical spring seasonality, but it remains 1.8% below the level of one year ago.1 The current supply is also 8.8% lower than it was in Q2 2022, indicating that inventory has not fully rebounded to its prior peak levels.1
The absorption rate, which measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales pace, was 5.8 months. This figure is unchanged from a year ago and sits squarely within the 5-to-7-month range that is traditionally considered a balanced market.1 The stability of this city-wide metric is deceptive. An aggregate absorption rate can mask significant underlying tensions; in this case, it represents a mathematical average of fast-moving, supply-starved markets (like Queens) and slow-moving, over-supplied markets (like the Bronx). The city-wide equilibrium is therefore a fragile one, built upon the offsetting dynamics of its disparate parts.
Borough Deep Dive: Manhattan — The Engine of Recovery
Manhattan reasserted its position as the primary driver of the New York City real estate market in Q2 2025. Its powerful rebound in sales activity and its disproportionate share of high-value transactions were responsible for lifting the entire city's aggregate metrics into positive territory.
Metric | 2Q-2025 | %Chg QOQ | %Chg YoY | %Chg 2YOY | %Chg 3YOY | |
Average Sales Price | $2,194,663 | -5.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% | -2.3% | |
Median Sales Price | $1,200,000 | 3.0% | -4.0% | 0.0% | -4.0% | |
Number of Sales | 3,115 | 18.6% | 16.1% | 30.6% | -20.4% | |
Listing Inventory | 8,780 | 12.1% | 3.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | |
Absorption Rate (mo) | 8.5 | -4.5% | -10.5% | -16.7% | 32.8% | |
Market Share by Volume | 51.7% | - | - | - | - | |
Data sourced from Miller Samuel Inc. 1 |
The Price Paradox: A Shift in Market Composition
Manhattan's pricing data for Q2 2025 reveals a fascinating and important trend. The average sales price fell 5.4% from the previous quarter to $2,194,663. In stark contrast, the median sales price rose 3.0% over the same period to $1,200,000.1 This divergence between the two price metrics is a clear indicator of a shift in the composition of sales.
The average price is highly sensitive to outliers and is easily pulled up or down by a small number of extremely high-value transactions. The median price, representing the midpoint of all sales, is a better gauge of the typical property's value. The fact that the average price fell while the median price rose indicates that there were fewer sales at the very top of the market (e.g., properties above $20 million) compared to the prior quarter. Simultaneously, the rising median price shows that the value of the "typical" or "core" Manhattan property—likely in the $1 million to $5 million range—is increasing. This suggests a broadening of the market's strength away from speculative ultra-luxury deals and toward a more sustainable, foundational base.
The Sales Surge: Driving the City's Growth
The most significant story in Manhattan was the dramatic rebound in sales activity. The 3,115 closed sales in Q2 2025 represented a powerful 18.6% increase from the prior quarter and a 16.1% increase from the prior year.1 This performance dramatically outpaced every other borough and was the sole reason for the positive narrative around transaction activity in NYC.
The scale of Manhattan's influence becomes clear when its performance is isolated from the rest of the city. While the city-wide number of sales was down 1.7% YoY, this figure includes Manhattan's robust 16.1% growth. A simple calculation reveals the trend for the other four boroughs combined:
Total NYC sales in Q2 2024 were 9,961, with 2,683 in Manhattan, leaving 7,278 in the rest of the city.1
Total NYC sales in Q2 2025 were 9,787, with 3,115 in Manhattan, leaving 6,672 in the rest of the city.1
The year-over-year change for the four outer boroughs combined was a decline of 8.3%.
This demonstrates that the aggregate NYC market was not stable; it was a combination of a booming Manhattan and a contracting outer-borough market. This bifurcation is the central story of the quarter.
Market Dominance and Supply
Manhattan's renewed vigor translated directly into market dominance, with its share of the city's total sales volume soaring to 51.7%.1 At the same time, inventory rose 12.1% quarter-over-quarter to 8,780 units, a typical seasonal increase.1
Ordinarily, rising inventory would signal a cooling market. However, because the pace of sales accelerated so dramatically, the inventory was absorbed faster. The absorption rate fell to 8.5 months, a decrease of 10.5% from the prior year.1 A decreasing absorption rate in the face of rising inventory is a powerful signal of intense and growing demand. While an 8.5-month supply technically still favors buyers, the sharp downward
trend in this metric is more significant than its absolute level. It suggests the market is moving rapidly toward equilibrium, and if the current sales pace holds, it could become a seller's market, putting further upward pressure on prices in the core market segments.
Borough Deep Dive: Brooklyn — A Picture of High-Priced Stability
Brooklyn's residential market in Q2 2025 was defined by stability and maturity. After years of rapid growth that often outpaced the rest of the city, the borough appears to have settled onto a high-priced plateau, serving as a steady, predictable anchor in the otherwise turbulent city-wide market.
Metric | 2Q-2025 | %Chg QOQ | %Chg YoY | %Chg 2YOY | %Chg 3YOY | |
Average Sales Price | $1,323,118 | 3.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% | |
Median Sales Price | $995,000 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 1.0% | |
Number of Sales | 2,428 | 5.5% | 0.5% | -4.4% | -34.8% | |
Listing Inventory | 3,363 | 27.6% | 0.5% | 15.1% | 4.1% | |
Absorption Rate (mo) | 4.2 | 23.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 61.5% | |
Market Share by Unit | 24.8% | - | - | - | - | |
Data sourced from Miller Samuel Inc. 1 |
The Pricing Plateau
The clearest sign of Brooklyn's market stabilization is its median sales price, which was $995,000. This figure was unchanged (0.0% change) from the previous quarter and up a negligible 0.5% from the same quarter last year.1 This lack of significant price movement suggests a market that has reached a state of equilibrium, where buyer valuations and seller expectations have largely converged. The modest 5.1% YoY increase in the average price indicates some strength in the upper end of the market, but the flat median price confirms that the value of the typical property has leveled off. Brooklyn's market has matured, having already undergone its primary phase of rapid price appreciation in the previous decade.
Steady Sales in a Shifting Landscape
Transactional activity in Brooklyn was remarkably consistent. The 2,428 closed sales were essentially flat year-over-year (+0.5%), as was the borough's market share by unit (24.8%) and volume (24.3%).1 This performance reinforces its role as a stable, foundational segment of the NYC housing market—neither booming like Manhattan nor contracting like the Bronx.
However, beneath this surface-level stability, a potentially significant shift is occurring on the supply side. Listing inventory jumped 27.6% from the prior quarter to 3,363 units. While sales remained steady, this influx of new supply caused the absorption rate to increase by 23.5% QoQ to 4.2 months.1 Although a 4.2-month supply still indicates a seller's market, the upward trend in absorption suggests a loosening of market conditions. This sharp rise in available inventory is a key metric to watch. If sales activity does not accelerate to meet this new supply, Brooklyn could transition from a seller's market to a more balanced one in the coming quarters, which could begin to exert downward pressure on the current price plateau.
Borough Deep Dive: Queens — The Supply Squeeze
The residential market in Queens during Q2 2025 was defined by one overwhelming factor: a critical and worsening shortage of available properties for sale. This supply-side constraint was the primary driver of all other market metrics, leading to unwavering price growth even as the number of transactions began to decline.
Metric | 2Q-2025 | %Chg QOQ | %Chg YoY | %Chg 2YOY | %Chg 3YOY | |
Average Sales Price | $771,441 | 0.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 0.9% | |
Median Sales Price | $714,383 | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | |
Number of Sales | 2,866 | 2.4% | -7.1% | -4.6% | -31.4% | |
Listing Inventory | 3,420 | 2.9% | -30.1% | -32.6% | -38.1% | |
Absorption Rate (mo) | 3.6* | - | - | - | - | |
Market Share by Unit | 29.3% | - | - | - | - | |
Note: The absorption rate of 3.6 months is a corrected figure based on manual calculation, as the source document contained a clear data error.1 Data sourced from Miller Samuel Inc. 1 |
Data Anomaly and Corrected Analysis
A critical evaluation of the source data is necessary for an accurate analysis of Queens. The provided report lists an absorption rate of 768,839.0, a figure that is nonsensical for this metric but corresponds almost exactly to a prior quarter's average sales price, indicating a data entry error.1
A manual calculation provides a true picture of market speed. With 3,420 active listings and a sales pace of 955 units per month (2,866 sales over 3 months), the correct absorption rate is approximately 3.6 months ($3,420 / (2,866 / 3) \approx 3.58$). This corrected figure reveals that Queens is, in fact, the tightest and fastest-moving market in New York City, a crucial conclusion entirely obscured by the data error.
The Inventory Crisis
The central story in Queens is a chronic and severe lack of supply. Active listings plummeted to just 3,420 units, a staggering 30.1% decrease from one year ago and a 38.1% drop from three years ago.1 This represents the most acute inventory contraction of any borough.
This "inventory crisis" is the lens through which all other data must be viewed. The number of closed sales fell 7.1% YoY.1 In the context of a 3.6-month absorption rate, this decline in sales is not a signal of weak demand. Rather, it is a direct consequence of the supply shortage; there are simply not enough homes available to meet buyer demand. This dynamic creates intense competition for the few listings that do become available, putting relentless upward pressure on prices.
Unwavering Price Growth
The effect of this supply-demand imbalance is clearly visible in the pricing data. The median sales price in Queens rose to $714,383, demonstrating consistent growth quarter-over-quarter (+2.1%), year-over-year (+4.1%), and over two- and three-year horizons.1 Queens is the only borough to post positive price growth across every single comparative time period for both its average and median price metrics.
This unwavering appreciation, even as the number of transactions falls, is a testament to the intense demand fueled by the inventory shortage. Queens currently presents an extremely favorable environment for sellers but a significant challenge for buyers. The market is at risk of overheating, where continued price growth could eventually outpace wage growth and erode affordability, potentially leading to demand destruction in future quarters.
Borough Deep Dive: The Bronx and Staten Island — A Tale of Sharp Contraction
In stark contrast to the rest of the city, the residential markets in the Bronx and Staten Island experienced sharp contractions in Q2 2025. Both boroughs saw significant declines in sales activity and a loosening of market conditions, though the underlying causes differ. Together, they represent the other side of the city's great divergence, facing considerable headwinds while Manhattan booms.
Metric | The Bronx | Staten Island | |
Median Sales Price | $600,000 (+3.4% YoY) | $710,000 (+7.6% YoY) | |
Number of Sales | 688 (-14.7% YoY) | 690 (-29.0% YoY) | |
Listing Inventory | 2,155 (+38.2% YoY) | 1,087 (+21.3% YoY) | |
Absorption Rate (mo) | 9.4 (+62.1% YoY) | 4.7 (+67.9% YoY) | |
Market Share by Unit | 7.0% | 7.1% | |
Data sourced from Miller Samuel Inc. 1 |
The Activity Plunge
Sales activity fell precipitously in both boroughs. The Bronx recorded 688 closed sales, a 14.7% drop from the prior year. The decline in Staten Island was even more severe, with only 690 sales, representing a 29.0% YoY collapse in transactions.1 These are not gentle slowdowns but sharp market corrections. The strong demand that characterized these more affordable boroughs in the post-pandemic era appears to have substantially receded. As a result, their respective shares of the city's total sales have dwindled, with each accounting for only about 7% of all units sold.1
Divergent Inventory Stories, Convergent Problems
While both markets are cooling rapidly, their supply-side dynamics reveal different underlying problems.
In the Bronx, the market is suffering from a dual shock: collapsing demand combined with a flood of new inventory. Active listings surged by 38.2% YoY to 2,155 units. This influx of supply, met with dwindling sales, caused the absorption rate to skyrocket by 62.1% YoY to 9.4 months.1 An absorption rate this high signifies a deep buyer's market, where supply far outstrips demand. This creates an environment where sellers must compete aggressively for a small pool of buyers, which will almost certainly exert significant downward pressure on prices in the coming quarters.
In Staten Island, the problem is primarily a collapse in demand. While inventory also rose by a notable 21.3% YoY to 1,087 units, the primary driver of the market's slowdown was the 29.0% freefall in sales.1 This combination caused the absorption rate to jump by 67.9% YoY to 4.7 months.1 While this rate is rising rapidly, it is still within a range that is considered balanced, not yet the acute buyer's market seen in the Bronx.
Despite these challenging forward-looking indicators, both boroughs still posted YoY gains in median sales price.1 This price data is a lagging indicator, reflecting deals that likely went into contract months earlier. The current supply and demand dynamics, particularly the rapidly rising absorption rates, suggest that this price strength is not sustainable. Both markets, and especially the Bronx, are at high risk of price stagnation or outright declines in the second half of 2025.
Comparative Insights and Forward Outlook
The granular, borough-level data from Q2 2025 paints a vivid picture of a New York City housing market moving in multiple directions at once. Synthesizing these trends reveals the depth of the market's divergence and provides a framework for understanding its likely trajectory in the coming months.
Cross-Borough Performance Matrix (YoY % Change, Q2-2025)
Borough | Median Price | Number of Sales | Listing Inventory | Absorption Rate | |
Manhattan | -4.0% | 16.1% | 3.7% | -10.5% | |
Brooklyn | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | |
Queens | 4.1% | -7.1% | -30.1% | N/A (See note) | |
The Bronx | 3.4% | -14.7% | 38.2% | 62.1% | |
Staten Island | 7.6% | -29.0% | 21.3% | 67.9% | |
Note: Queens absorption rate change is not calculated due to a data error in the Q2-2024 source material. The corrected Q2-2025 rate is 3.6 months. Data sourced from Miller Samuel Inc. 1 |
Synthesis: The Great Divergence of 2025
The data confirms that it is no longer accurate to speak of a single "New York City market." Instead, at least three distinct markets are operating simultaneously:
The Resurgent Core (Manhattan): Driven by a strong rebound in sales velocity in its foundational luxury segments, Manhattan is in a clear recovery. Demand is currently outpacing the growth in supply, leading to a faster-moving market and solidifying its role as the city's economic engine.
The Stable Middle (Brooklyn & Queens): These boroughs represent a mature and bifurcated middle market. Brooklyn is defined by high-priced stability, with flat pricing and sales activity, though a recent surge in inventory bears watching. Queens is defined by a severe supply crisis, which is fueling consistent price growth despite a lack of transactional volume.
The Contracting Periphery (The Bronx & Staten Island): These more affordable boroughs are experiencing sharp downturns. A significant drop-off in demand has led to rapidly rising inventory and slowing market paces, creating conditions ripe for a price correction.
The Supply-Demand Imbalance: A City-Wide Stress Test
Inventory has emerged as the key variable shaping the city's future. The stark contrast between the inventory crisis in Queens and the inventory glut in the Bronx highlights a city-wide stress test. This imbalance will likely lead to a widening affordability gap, as prices in supply-constrained boroughs like Queens continue to appreciate while those in over-supplied areas like the Bronx face downward pressure. This dynamic presents distinct risks and opportunities for developers, investors, and homebuyers across the city.
Forward Outlook and Key Questions for Q3 2025
The divergent trends observed in Q2 are likely to widen before they converge. Manhattan's strength will continue to lift the city-wide price averages, masking the profound weakness elsewhere. Key questions for the next quarter include:
Manhattan: Can the blistering sales pace be sustained, or will rising inventory and potential interest rate pressures finally cool the rebound?
Brooklyn: Will demand rise to meet the recent 27.6% QoQ surge in inventory, or will this new supply lead to price softening and a transition to a balanced market?
Queens: At what point does the severe inventory shortage and resulting price growth lead to demand destruction, as buyers are priced out of the market entirely?
The Bronx & Staten Island: Will the negative forward-looking indicators translate into actual price declines in Q3? The 9.4-month supply in the Bronx, in particular, suggests that seller concessions and price cuts are imminent.