W Downtown Hotel & Residences (123 Washington Street)
1. BUILDING OVERVIEW (ANALYST FRAMING)
123 Washington Street (W Downtown) is a postwar resale condo completed in 2010, located in the Financial District, consisting of 223 units across 56 floors. Based on post-sponsor behavior, the building is classified as Yield-Oriented (At Risk). While it generates consistent rental activity (603 recorded rentals), the asset is suffering from severe capital depreciation. Longitudinal analysis reveals that resale trades in 2024–2026 are frequently clearing at prices 20% to 30% lower than their 2011–2014 sponsor baselines, drastically underperforming the NYXRCSA index, which reached an all-time high of 331.14 in October 2025. The building currently functions as a "falling knife" for capital preservation, despite active rental throughput.
2. UNIT MIX & COMPOSITION
Based on 238 recorded sales, the inventory is overwhelmingly skewed toward small footprints, which commoditizes the resale market and increases volatility.
1BR: 159 sales (~67% of activity). Median PPSF: ~$1,000–$1,300 (Recent Resale) vs $1,795 (Historical Aggregate).
2BR: 57 sales (~24% of activity). Median PPSF: ~$1,040–$1,230 (Recent Resale).
Studio: 7 sales (~3% of activity).
Penthouse/Other: Mixed activity.
Analysis: The building is dominated by 1BR units. This high concentration creates a unit mix imbalance, as sellers of generic 1BRs face intense internal competition, preventing price leverage during resale.
3. LINE (STACK) PERFORMANCE — RESALE ONLY
Liquidity (Resale Only): Organic resale liquidity is poor.
Unit 36B (2BR): 345 Days on Market (Sold Jun 2024).
Unit PH53G (1BR): 170 Days on Market (Sold May 2024).
Unit PH55F (2BR): 133 Days on Market (Sold Feb 2024).
Conclusion: Sellers often face absorption periods exceeding 4–6 months to exit.
Price Strength:
Recent 2025–2026 trades show a collapse in price strength.
Unit 41B (2BR) sold for $1,014 PPSF in Nov 2025.
Unit 48H (1BR) sold for $1,254 PPSF in Jan 2026.
Comparison: These PPSF levels are significantly below the building's historical median of $1,806, indicating a structural downward repricing.
Appreciation:
Compounding is negative across most lines.
Line B (2BR) and Line H (1BR) consistently trade at losses relative to 2013–2014 valuations, driven by aggressive Sponsor price normalization.
4. BUILDING-WIDE PPSF TREND (NORMALIZED)
2011–2014 (Sponsor Phase): Pricing established at $1,600–$2,100+ PPSF. (e.g., Unit 44B sold for $2,347 PPSF in 2015).
2016–2019 (Correction): Resale pricing began to soften, failing to hold sponsor peaks.
2023–2026 (Mean-Reversion): The bottom has dropped out. Recent trades cluster between $1,000 and $1,350 PPSF.
Example: Unit 36B sold for $1,042 PPSF in 2024, compared to similar units trading near $2,000 PPSF a decade prior.
Conclusion:Drawdown/Cyclical Bear. The building is actively depreciating while the broader NYXRCSA benchmark continues to rise.
5. RENT CAPTURE ANALYSIS
Mandatory Metric: Effective Annual Rent (EAR)
Unit 42B (2BR, 2025): Achieved $7,850. DOM: 37. EAR: $7,054.
Calculation: $7,850 × (328/365).
Unit 30H (1BR, 2025): Achieved $5,000. DOM: 24. EAR: $4,671.
Calculation: $5,000 × (341/365).
Unit 37D (1BR, 2024): Achieved $5,400. DOM: 143. EAR: $3,284.
Calculation: $5,400 × (222/365).
Unit 28E (Studio, 2024): Achieved $6,100. DOM: 62. EAR: $5,063.
Analysis: The rental market is the building's only functional pillar. Nominal rents are strong ($80–$100 PPSF). However, income leakage is a risk for units that are mispriced; Unit 37D lost ~40% of its annual potential income due to a nearly 5-month vacancy.
6. B³ SCORING SYSTEM (0–100)
Liquidity Score: 40 (Low. Organic resale DOM frequently exceeds 130 days, with outliers over 300 days).
Rent Capture Score: 70 (Good nominal yields and velocity for correctly priced units, though some listings suffer leakage).
Appreciation Score: 15 (Critical Failure. The asset demonstrates consistent negative compounding over a 10+ year hold period).
7. COMPOSITE SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
Composite Score: 40.25
Category: Yield-Oriented (At Risk)
Justification: The building meets the "Yield" criteria via rental activity but falls into "At Risk" because capital values are eroding. The Appreciation Score of 15 pulls the composite down significantly.
8. TRANSACTION EXAMPLES
Resale Depreciation (Capital Erosion)
Unit 36B (2BR):
Prev Trade (Sponsor-Era): ~$2,026,875 (~$1,725 PPSF) in Sep 2013.
Sold: $1,225,000 ($1,042 PPSF) in Jun 2024.
Result: -39.5% Loss.
Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
Unit 40H (1BR):
Prev Trade: $1,242,265 ($2,049 PPSF) in Jul 2013.
Sold: $843,500 ($1,391 PPSF) in Jun 2023.
Result: -32% Loss.
Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
Unit 47H (1BR):
Prev Trade: $1,011,977 ($1,669 PPSF) in Apr 2012.
Sold: $792,000 ($1,306 PPSF) in May 2023.
Result: -21% Loss.
Driver: Market regime timing (Bought at sponsor peak, sold in high-rate environment).
Unit 48H (1BR):
Prev Trade: $1,024,318 ($1,690 PPSF) in Apr 2012.
Sold: $760,000 ($1,254 PPSF) in Jan 2026.
Result: -25.8% Loss.
Driver: Sponsor price normalization.
Resale Appreciation (None Available)
Note: No recent organic resale transactions in the provided dataset demonstrate significant capital appreciation over their 2011–2014 baselines. The building is in a broad deflationary cycle relative to its initial pricing.
9. RISKS & RED FLAGS
Sponsor Price Normalization: Buyers from 2011–2015 paid premiums ($1,700+ PPSF) that the secondary market has rejected. Resales now clear near $1,100–$1,300 PPSF.
Negative Real Return: While the NYXRCSA index rose from ~180 in 2012 to 331.14 in 2025, owners in this building experienced nominal losses of 20–40%.
Red Flag: Do not buy Line B or Line H expecting capital growth; the historical data confirms they are "value traps" where prices revert to a lower mean upon resale.
10. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
123 Washington Street is a Yield-Oriented (At Risk) asset that functions as a high-churn rental factory but a capital destruction vehicle for long-term owners. Post-sponsor analysis reveals a catastrophic trend of negative appreciation, with resale units in 2024–2026 consistently trading 20% to 40% below their 2012–2014 purchase prices. While the building generates reliable rental income with nominal PPSF near $90, the liquidity shift (resale DOM > 130 days) and sponsor price normalization have trapped equity. Opportunity exists strictly for cash-flow investors buying at the new distressed basis ($1,000–$1,200 PPSF), but the asset has failed to capture any of the market growth reflected in the NYXRCSA benchmark.
B³ SCORECARD
Liquidity Score: 40
Rent Capture Score: 70
Appreciation Score: 15
Composite Score: 40.25
Category: Yield-Oriented (At Risk)
Unit Mix: 1BR Dominant (67% of sales)
Disclosures: Approximately 45 transactions from 2010–2014 were flagged as Sponsor-Driven (DOM ≤ 30 or "No Listing" within 5 years of launch). These were used to establish the high initial pricing baseline against which current resales are showing significant depreciation.